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Australian A-League | Gameweek 20
Mar 12, 2023 at 4am UK
AAMI Park
Brisbane Roar

Melbourne City
2 - 1
Brisbane Roar

O'Neill (22', 88')
Lam (32'), Berisha (73'), Jamieson (87')
FT(HT: 1-0)
O'Shea (80' pen.)
Neville (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Brisbane Roar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Adelaide United 4-2 Melbourne City
Friday, March 3 at 8.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Macarthur 3-2 Brisbane Roar
Sunday, March 5 at 4am in Australian A-League

We said: Melbourne City 3-0 Brisbane Roar

Melbourne City might have suffered a couple of defeats as of late, but they have still showcased great attacking qualities in their performances. With the visitors struggling throughout the season, this should be a game where the league leaders get back to winning ways. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 66.12%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 1-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%), while for a Brisbane Roar win it was 1-2 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne CityDrawBrisbane Roar
66.12% (-0.38300000000001 -0.38) 18.89% (0.23 0.23) 15% (0.154 0.15)
Both teams to score 55.39% (-0.459 -0.46)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.15% (-0.775 -0.77)37.85% (0.77399999999999 0.77)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.9% (-0.83199999999999 -0.83)60.1% (0.834 0.83)
Melbourne City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.34% (-0.31400000000001 -0.31)10.66% (0.314 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
65.48% (-0.70400000000001 -0.7)34.52% (0.704 0.7)
Brisbane Roar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62% (-0.293 -0.29)38% (0.295 0.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.24% (-0.281 -0.28)74.76% (0.282 0.28)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne City 66.11%
    Brisbane Roar 15%
    Draw 18.89%
Melbourne CityDrawBrisbane Roar
2-0 @ 10.14% (0.11 0.11)
2-1 @ 9.82% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
1-0 @ 9.07% (0.217 0.22)
3-0 @ 7.58% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 7.33% (-0.074 -0.07)
4-0 @ 4.24% (-0.065 -0.06)
4-1 @ 4.1% (-0.097 -0.1)
3-2 @ 3.55% (-0.064 -0.06)
4-2 @ 1.99% (-0.063 -0.06)
5-0 @ 1.9% (-0.055 -0.05)
5-1 @ 1.84% (-0.069 -0.07)
Other @ 4.57%
Total : 66.11%
1-1 @ 8.77% (0.142 0.14)
2-2 @ 4.75% (-0.023000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.05% (0.149 0.15)
3-3 @ 1.14% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 18.89%
1-2 @ 4.25% (0.036 0.04)
0-1 @ 3.92% (0.114 0.11)
0-2 @ 1.9% (0.041 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.53% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.37%
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 15%

How you voted: Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar

Melbourne City
57.1%
Draw
42.9%
Brisbane Roar
0.0%
7
Head to Head
Jan 21, 2023 8.45am
Brisbane Roar
0-0
Melbourne City

Zabala (6'), O'Shea (45+2')

O'Neill (47'), Leckie (80'), van der Venne (90+2')
Oct 14, 2022 9.45am
Mar 23, 2022 8.35am
Brisbane Roar
1-2
Melbourne City
Hore (9')
Aldred (90+1')
Trewin (14' og.), Borges Rodrigues (49')
Berenguer (67'), Hall (90+4')
Nov 19, 2021 8.45am
May 25, 2021 10.05am
Brisbane Roar
3-0
Melbourne City
O'Shea (6' pen., 52' pen.), Parsons (38')
Akbari (34'), Wenzel-Halls (36')

Mills (51'), Reis (61'), Berenguer (69')
rhs 2.0
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