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Bundesliga | Gameweek 11
Nov 23, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
BayArena
Heidenheim

B. Leverkusen
5 - 2
Heidenheim

Palacios (30'), Schick (32', 52', 71'), Xhaka (82')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Dorsch (10'), Honsak (21')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Heidenheim, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: VfL Bochum 1-1 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, November 9 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Heidenheim

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 1-3 Wolfsburg
Sunday, November 10 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Heidenheim

 Leverkusen have struggled for goals of late, and it is difficult to see them immediately returning to goalscoring form, but it is equally difficult to overlook their impressive home record. Given the hosts' resilience at BayArena, it would not be surprising if Heidenheim eventually succumbed to defeat against Alonso's side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 66.41%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Heidenheim had a probability of 15.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.71%) and 1-0 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.48%), while for a Heidenheim win it was 1-2 (4.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawHeidenheim
66.41% (-1.799 -1.8) 18.51% (0.716 0.72) 15.08% (1.084 1.08)
Both teams to score 57.02% (0.251 0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.14% (-1.038 -1.04)35.86% (1.041 1.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.06% (-1.153 -1.15)57.94% (1.155 1.16)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.97% (-0.705 -0.7)10.03% (0.708 0.71)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.91% (-1.652 -1.65)33.09% (1.654 1.65)
Heidenheim Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.37% (0.771 0.77)36.63% (-0.769 -0.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.58% (0.765 0.77)73.41% (-0.761 -0.76)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 66.41%
    Heidenheim 15.08%
    Draw 18.51%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawHeidenheim
2-1 @ 9.76% (0.104 0.1)
2-0 @ 9.71% (-0.1 -0.1)
1-0 @ 8.45% (0.176 0.18)
3-1 @ 7.48% (-0.156 -0.16)
3-0 @ 7.45% (-0.316 -0.32)
4-1 @ 4.3% (-0.229 -0.23)
4-0 @ 4.28% (-0.324 -0.32)
3-2 @ 3.76% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 2.16% (-0.069 -0.07)
5-1 @ 1.98% (-0.172 -0.17)
5-0 @ 1.97% (-0.216 -0.22)
5-2 @ 0.99% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 4.13%
Total : 66.41%
1-1 @ 8.48% (0.349 0.35)
2-2 @ 4.9% (0.152 0.15)
0-0 @ 3.67% (0.188 0.19)
3-3 @ 1.26% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 18.51%
1-2 @ 4.26% (0.26 0.26)
0-1 @ 3.69% (0.261 0.26)
0-2 @ 1.85% (0.167 0.17)
2-3 @ 1.64% (0.084 0.08)
1-3 @ 1.43% (0.115 0.12)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 15.08%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Heidenheim

Bayer Leverkusen
88.2%
Draw
8.6%
Heidenheim
3.2%
93
Head to Head
Feb 17, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 22
Heidenheim
1-2
B. Leverkusen
Kleindienst (86')
Fohrenbach (26'), Gimber (32')
Frimpong (45+2'), Adli (81')
Andrich (90+2')
> Preview
Sep 24, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 5
B. Leverkusen
4-1
Heidenheim
Okoh Boniface (9', 74' pen.), Hofmann (63'), Adli (82')
Palacios (31')
Dinkci (58')
Theuerkauf (37')
> Preview
Feb 5, 2019 5.30pm
Round of 16
Heidenheim
2-1
B. Leverkusen
Dovedan (47'), Multhaup (72')
Dorsch (64')
Brandt (44')
Dragovic (77'), Baumgartlinger (88')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Borussia DortmundDortmund157442822625
7Werder Bremen157442625125
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
9Freiburg157352124-324
10Stuttgart156542925423
11Wolfsburg156363228421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1531111833-1510
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1513111335-226
> Bundesliga Full Table


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