Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 5

Sep 24, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

BayArena

B. Leverkusen
4 - 1
Heidenheim

Okoh Boniface (9', 74' pen.), Hofmann (63'), Adli (82')
Palacios (31')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Dinkci (58')
Theuerkauf (37')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Heidenheim, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 4-0 Hacken
Thursday, September 21 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Heidenheim

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Heidenheim 4-2 Werder Bremen
Sunday, September 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Heidenheim

Leverkusen have already beaten RB Leipzig and Borussia Monchengladbach, as well as holding Bayern to a draw at the Allianz, so another three points will be the order of the day here against newly-promoted opposition. Heidenheim have scored eight in their last three games though, including two away at Dortmund, so Leverkusen can not take them lightly. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 26.64% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Heidenheim
50.35% ( 1.56)	23% ( 0)	26.64% ( -1.56)

Both teams to score 60.01% (

-1.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.37% (

-1.23)

40.63% (

1.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.99% (

-1.27)

63.01% (

1.27)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.7% (

0.11)

16.3% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.13% (

0.2)

45.86% (

-0.2)

Heidenheim Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.7% (

-1.74)

28.3% (

1.74)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.98% (

-2.25)

64.02% (

2.25)

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 50.35%

Heidenheim 26.64%

Draw 23%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Heidenheim
2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.14) 1-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.49) 2-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.47) 3-1 @ 5.79% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.3) 3-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.08% ( 0.14) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.46% Total : 50.35%	1-1 @ 10.56% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.21) 0-0 @ 4.61% ( 0.26) 3-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.24% Total : 23%	1-2 @ 6.67% ( -0.26) 0-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.26) 2-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.15) Other @ 3.58% Total : 26.64%