Australian A-League | Gameweek 15

Feb 4, 2023 at 6am UK

AAMI Park

Melbourne City
6 - 1
Macarthur

MacLaren (3', 88'), van der Venne (33', 43', 77'), Nabbout (68')
Lam (45+1')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Najjar (72')
Arzani (11'), M'Mombwa (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Macarthur, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Melbourne City 3-3 Adelaide United
Sunday, January 29 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Macarthur

All competitions

Last Game: Macarthur 2-2 Western Utd
Saturday, January 28 at 6am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Melbourne City 2-0 Macarthur

Melbourne City might be without a win in their previous three matches, but competing against another team in poor form recently could be the ideal way to change that. Considering the fact that the league leaders are undefeated at home, this should result in three points for them. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 71.6%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Macarthur had a probability of 11.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 3-0 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.52%), while for a Macarthur win it was 1-2 (3.5%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne City	Draw	Macarthur
71.6% ( 0.38)	16.44% ( -0.2)	11.96% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 55.62% (

0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.67% (

0.52)

33.32% (

-0.52)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.9% (

0.59)

55.1% (

-0.59)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.81% (

0.21)

8.19% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.32% (

0.52)

28.67% (

-0.52)

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.58% (

0.06)

39.41% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.89% (

0.06)

76.11% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Melbourne City 71.59%

Macarthur 11.96%

Draw 16.44%

Melbourne City	Draw	Macarthur
2-0 @ 10.1% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.41% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 8.43% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.07% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 7.85% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 5.27% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 4.91% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.04) 5-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.03) 6-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.04) 6-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.24% Total : 71.59%	1-1 @ 7.52% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 16.44%	1-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.36% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.61% Total : 11.96%