Toulouse's win here in May was their first at the Parc des Princes since 2008, and while they also held PSG to a draw in the reverse earlier last season, repeating the feat again will be unlikely, even if the hosts do rotate heavily.
Even when Enrique has shuffled the pack slightly for matches in Ligue 1, they have looked even more impressive than when their full-strength side has featured in Europe, so another win is on the cards here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 63.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 15.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for a Toulouse win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
-1.25) 
0.73) 
