Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 66.72%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Western United had a probability of 13.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.15%), while for a Western United win it was 0-1 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Melbourne City | Draw | Western United |
66.72% ( -0.36) | 19.31% ( 0.15) | 13.96% ( 0.22) |
Both teams to score 51.07% ( 0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.85% ( -0.18) | 42.15% ( 0.18) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.44% ( -0.18) | 64.55% ( 0.18) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.27% ( -0.15) | 11.73% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.14% ( -0.32) | 36.86% ( 0.32) |
Western United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.86% ( 0.2) | 42.14% ( -0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.44% ( 0.17) | 78.56% ( -0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne City | Draw | Western United |
2-0 @ 11.35% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 8.11% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 3.76% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.86% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.61% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.63% Total : 66.72% | 1-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.24% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.98% Total : 19.31% | 0-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.53% Total : 13.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
5 | Macarthur | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 12 |
6 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 |
8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
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