CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals
Mar 21, 2025 at 2.30am UK
Masafi Stadium
Canada0 - 2Mexico
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Canada 3-0 Suriname
Wednesday, November 20 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Wednesday, November 20 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Chile | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Peru | 3 | -3 | 1 |
We said: Canada 2-0 Mexico
The Canadians should be fairly confident coming into this match, having fared well against many elite nations over the past year, and we believe their individual quality in the attacking third will ultimately make the difference. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 46.35%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Canada | Draw | Mexico |
46.35% ( 0.44) | 24.91% ( 0.15) | 28.73% ( -0.59) |
| Both teams to score 55.19% ( -0.86) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.25% ( -0.96) | 47.74% ( 0.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.06% ( -0.89) | 69.93% ( 0.89) |
| Canada Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.35% ( -0.2) | 20.64% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.78% ( -0.31) | 53.21% ( 0.31) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.54% ( -0.91) | 30.45% ( 0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.34% ( -1.09) | 66.66% ( 1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
Canada 46.35%
Mexico 28.73%
Draw 24.91%
| Canada | Draw | Mexico |
| 1-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.83% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.12% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.69% Total : 46.35% | 1-1 @ 11.79% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.91% | 0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 7.01% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.07% Total : 28.73% |
How you voted: Canada vs Mexico
Canada
57.1%Draw
17.5%Mexico
25.4%63
Head to Head
Nov 17, 2021 2.05am
Oct 8, 2021 2.40am
Third Round
Mexico
1-1
Canada
Jun 20, 2019 3.30am
