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Australian A-League | Gameweek 4
Oct 30, 2022 at 6am UK
AAMI Park
Wellington Phoenix

Melbourne City
2 - 2
Wellington

MacLaren (16' pen.), Tilio (34')
Gomulka (40'), O'Neill (41'), Lam (63'), Talbot (77')
Lam (90+2')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Sutton (79'), Barbarouses (90')
Payne (15'), Pennington (50'), Elliot (83')
Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Wellington Phoenix.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions
Last Game: Victory 0-2 Melbourne City
Saturday, October 22 at 9.45am in Australian A-League

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions
Last Game: Newcastle Jets 3-1 Wellington
Saturday, October 22 at 7am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 66.15%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 14.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 1-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.96%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne CityDrawWellington Phoenix
66.15% (-1.359 -1.36) 19.12% (0.583 0.58) 14.74% (0.773 0.77)
Both teams to score 53.87% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.48% (-1.014 -1.01)39.52% (1.015 1.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.14% (-1.066 -1.07)61.86% (1.065 1.07)
Melbourne City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.88% (-0.634 -0.63)11.12% (0.632 0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.45% (-1.409 -1.41)35.55% (1.408 1.41)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.61% (0.43 0.43)39.39% (-0.432 -0.43)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.91% (0.399 0.4)76.09% (-0.401 -0.4)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne City 66.14%
    Wellington Phoenix 14.74%
    Draw 19.12%
Melbourne CityDrawWellington Phoenix
2-0 @ 10.56% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-1 @ 9.84% (0.067 0.07)
1-0 @ 9.62% (0.203 0.2)
3-0 @ 7.74% (-0.246 -0.25)
3-1 @ 7.21% (-0.142 -0.14)
4-0 @ 4.25% (-0.252 -0.25)
4-1 @ 3.96% (-0.186 -0.19)
3-2 @ 3.36% (-0.026 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.87% (-0.163 -0.16)
4-2 @ 1.84% (-0.064 -0.06)
5-1 @ 1.74% (-0.13 -0.13)
Other @ 4.16%
Total : 66.14%
1-1 @ 8.96% (0.293 0.29)
2-2 @ 4.59% (0.084 0.08)
0-0 @ 4.38% (0.204 0.2)
3-3 @ 1.04% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 19.12%
1-2 @ 4.18% (0.183 0.18)
0-1 @ 4.08% (0.235 0.24)
0-2 @ 1.9% (0.131 0.13)
2-3 @ 1.42% (0.043 0.04)
1-3 @ 1.3% (0.071 0.07)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 14.74%

Head to Head
May 9, 2022 10.05am
Melbourne City
2-1
Wellington
Sutton (3' og.), MacLaren (10')
Nabbout (30'), Tilio (54'), MacLaren (56'), Jenkinson (83')
Waine (54')
Piscopo (81'), Waine (90+2')
Apr 2, 2022 6.35am
Wellington
0-6
Melbourne City

Pennington (87'), Ball (90')
Surman (17' og.), Leckie (50'), Nabbout (59'), Good (68'), Tilio (76', 81')
May 16, 2021 7.05am
Melbourne City
2-2
Wellington
Tsubaki (58'), MacLaren (81')
O'Neill (90')
Hemed (37' pen., 88')
Lewis (79'), Hemed (89'), McGarry (90')
Apr 5, 2021 10.10am
Wellington
2-3
Melbourne City
Hemed (39'), Davila (56')
Fenton (58'), Laws (62'), Devlin (88')
Good (17'), MacLaren (45'), Tilio (83')
Berenguer (55')
Feb 15, 2020 6am
Wellington
1-0
Melbourne City
Ball (58')
Davila (43'), Hooper (90')
rhs 2.0
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