Australian A-League | Gameweek 18

Feb 25, 2023 at 6am UK

AAMI Park

Melbourne City
3 - 2
Sydney FC

MacLaren (5', 30'), Tilio (13')
van der Venne (55'), Reis (90+5')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Mak (28'), Caballo (90+6')
Retre (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Sydney FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 3-2 Melbourne City
Saturday, February 18 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Sydney FC

All competitions

Last Game: Sydney FC 1-1 Brisbane Roar
Saturday, February 18 at 6am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Melbourne City 1-1 Sydney FC

Melbourne City might seem like the favourites on paper for this match, but the recent shock defeat could provide an opening for the visitors to cause problems. Considering the fact that Sydney FC are currently enjoying a great run and have already beaten their opponents, seeing them battle out a draw could end up happening. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.49%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 21.87% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 1-2 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne City	Draw	Sydney FC
56.49% ( -0.18)	21.65% ( -0.02)	21.87% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 59.12% (

0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.72% (

0.36)

39.28% (

-0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.39% (

0.38)

61.61% (

-0.37)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.21% (

0.06)

13.78% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.9% (

0.12)

41.1% (

-0.12)

Sydney FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.57% (

0.39)

31.43% (

-0.39)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.19% (

0.45)

67.8% (

-0.44)

Score Analysis

Melbourne City 56.49%

Sydney FC 21.87%

Draw 21.65%

Melbourne City	Draw	Sydney FC
2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 8.51% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 6.5% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.78% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.41% Total : 56.49%	1-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 4.33% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.65%	1-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.66% Total : 21.87%