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Preview: Miami Open: Alexander Zverev vs. Jordan Thompson - prediction, form, head-to-head

Sports Mole previews Monday's Miami Open third-round match between Alexander Zverev and Jordan Thompson, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

Still seeking his first singles tournament victory on the ATP tour this year, top-seeded Alexander Zverev takes on doubles' specialist Jordan Thompson in the round of 32 match at the Miami Open on Monday.

In his opening match of the tournament, Zverev took care of Jacob Fearnley in straight sets (6-2 6-4), while the 2024 US Open doubles champion got past Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 7-6 (7-4) 7-6 (7-1).


Match preview

Alexander Zverev pictured at the Australian Open on January 12, 2025© Imago

Alexander Zverev was on point with his first serves throughout Saturday's match, winning 82% of them against his British counterpart.

At the same time, he boasted a first serve percentage of 90%, with eight aces for the match, to advance quite comfortably in the end.

The Australian Open singles finalist in 2025 has yet to lose a round of 32 match this year, defeating Italian Matteo Arnaldi at this stage of the Acapulco Open in February.

For a player of his height, at 1.98m (6 ft 6in), Zverev has great agility and powerful groundstrokes, winning 53% of his second return points on the hard court in 2025.

His strong forehand has enabled him to save 72% of his break points on the hard court in 2025, though he has only won 24% of his return games on that surface.

For the year, he has been able to win 88% of his service games and 69% of his service points on the hard court, to go along with 116 aces.

 Jordan Thompson of Australia pictured on January 15, 2025© Imago

After a lengthy opening singles match that saw him take out Marcos Giron in three sets (3-6 6-4 7-5), Jordan Thompson showed plenty of resolve and spirit when needed on Saturday, winning his two tie-break sets to advance.

The Wimbledon finalist on the doubles side last year has conceded 25 aces combined in two matches at this tournament but persevered, advancing beyond the second round of the Miami Open.

With a victory on Monday, the Australian would equal his best-ever finish at this tournament from 2019, when he lost in the round of 16 to Kevin Anderson (7-5 7-5).

Not since the Brisbane Open in December has he made it beyond the round of 32 of a single tournament on tour, defeating Matteo Berrettini at this stage of that event, before being forced to retire from his quarter-final fixture against Grigor Dimitrov.

So far this year, Thompson has fared well on the hard court, winning 71% of his first serves and 77% of his service games to this stage of the campaign.

However, his poor return game has set him back on the singles draw, winning just 19% of his return games on the hard court this year, while converting 58% of his break points.


Tournament so far

Alexander Zverev:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Jacob Fearnley 6-2 6-4

Jordan Thompson:

First round: vs. Marcos Giron 3-6 6-4 7-5
Second round: vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 7-6 (7-4) 7-6 (7-1)


Head To Head

Citi Open (2017) - Stage: Zverev wins 4-6 6-3 7-6
Mifel Open (2024) - Semi-final: Thompson wins 7-5 4-6 7-6
National Bank Open (2024) - Second Round: Zverev wins 6-1 6-1

When these two first met in a singles event, Zverev, the Olympic gold medallist from 2021, won 72% of his first serves and converted four of his six break-point opportunities to pull out a narrow victory.

At the Mifel Open a few years later, it was the Aussie's turn to win, thanks to his five aces and zero double faults, while he won 59% of his second serves.

Last summer's encounter between the two was no contest as Zverev won 94% of his first serves and converted five of his seven break-point opportunities to win comfortably.


SM words green background

We say: Zverev to win in two sets

Thompson has shown plenty of resolve at this tournament so far, but he's been too flat-footed in the return game, and a player with the power of Zverev should be able to use that to his advantage.

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Written by
Joel Lefevre

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