Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Mar 23, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Germany3 - 3Italy
Kimmich (30' pen.), Musiala (36'), Kleindienst (45')
Stiller (22'), Adeyemi (68'), Kleindienst (79')
Stiller (22'), Adeyemi (68'), Kleindienst (79')
FT(HT: 3-0)
The Match
Match Report
Julian Nagelsmann's Germany progress to the semi-final of the Nations League on Sunday night after a dramatic clash with Luciano Spalletti's Italy at Signal Iduna Park.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League quarter-final between Germany and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Germany could line up for Sunday's UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash with Italy.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Italy 1-2 Germany
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League
| Current League A3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Germany | 6 | 14 | 14 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Hungary | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 4 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 6 | -13 | 2 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 60.59%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Italy had a probability of 17.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.77%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Germany | Draw | Italy |
60.59% ( -0.02) | 21.82% ( 0) | 17.59% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 51.2% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.74% ( -0) | 46.26% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.45% | 68.55% ( -0) |
| Germany Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.18% ( -0.01) | 14.81% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 56.9% ( -0.02) | 43.09% ( 0.01) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.11% ( 0.02) | 39.89% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 23.45% ( 0.02) | 76.55% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
Germany 60.58%
Italy 17.59%
Draw 21.81%
| Germany | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 11.28% 2-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.9% 3-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.3% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.28% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.01% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.9% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.38% 5-0 @ 1.25% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0)Other @ 2.5% Total : 60.58% | 1-1 @ 10.36% 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.55% ( 0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 21.81% | 0-1 @ 5.43% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.77% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.5% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0)Other @ 2.04% Total : 17.59% |
How you voted: Germany vs Italy
Germany
69.9%Draw
18.7%Italy
11.4%123
Head to Head
Mar 20, 2025 7.45pm
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
Italy
1-2
Germany
Jun 4, 2022 7.45pm
League A
Italy
1-1
Germany
Mar 31, 2020 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Germany
P-P
Italy
Nov 15, 2016 7.45pm
Form Guide
Build-up
Germany lineup vs. Italy: Predicted XI for UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Germany could line up for Sunday's UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash with Italy.
11 days ago
Italy lineup vs. Germany: Predicted XI for UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Sunday's UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash with Germany.
11 days ago
