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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Israel national football team
Nations League | League A
Sep 9, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Bozsik Stadion
Italy national football team

Israel
1 - 2
Italy

Abu Fani (90')
Ben Shimon (88'), Jaber (90+4'), Yehezkel (90+2'), Revivo (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Frattesi (38'), Kean (62')
Gatti (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Nations League clash between Israel and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Monday's UEFA Nations League clash with Israel.

Form, Standings, Stats

Israel

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Belgium 3-1 Israel
Friday, September 6 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Current Group I Standings P GD PTS
1Romania101122
2Switzerland101117
3Israel10015
4Belarus10-512
5Kosovo10011
6Andorra10-172

Italy

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: France 1-3 Italy
Friday, September 6 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1Spain359
2Italy304
3Croatia3-32
4Albania3-21

We said: Israel 0-2 Italy

 Buoyed by their feats in France, new-look Italy should take care of business against an Israel side short of international nous and experience. Moving onto six points from a possible six would put the Azzurri in a strong position ahead of next month's clash with Belgium in Rome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Israel had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Israel win was 1-0 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
IsraelDrawItaly
34.59% (0.048000000000002 0.05) 26.42% (0.216 0.22) 38.99% (-0.26900000000001 -0.27)
Both teams to score 52.65% (-0.707 -0.71)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.89% (-0.906 -0.91)52.1% (0.899 0.9)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.17% (-0.787 -0.79)73.82% (0.779 0.78)
Israel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.29% (-0.411 -0.41)28.71% (0.404 0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.46% (-0.512 -0.51)64.53% (0.506 0.51)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.85% (-0.566 -0.57)26.14% (0.559 0.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.78% (-0.762 -0.76)61.21% (0.756 0.76)
Score Analysis
    Israel 34.59%
    Italy 38.98%
    Draw 26.41%
IsraelDrawItaly
1-0 @ 9.37% (0.228 0.23)
2-1 @ 7.84% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-0 @ 5.84% (0.077 0.08)
3-1 @ 3.26% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-0 @ 2.43% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 2.19% (-0.067 -0.07)
4-1 @ 1.02% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 34.59%
1-1 @ 12.56% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 7.5% (0.264 0.26)
2-2 @ 5.26% (-0.1 -0.1)
3-3 @ 0.98% (-0.046 -0.05)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.41%
0-1 @ 10.06% (0.19 0.19)
1-2 @ 8.43% (-0.064 -0.06)
0-2 @ 6.75% (0.026 0.03)
1-3 @ 3.77% (-0.09 -0.09)
0-3 @ 3.02% (-0.037 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.35% (-0.084 -0.08)
1-4 @ 1.26% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-4 @ 1.01% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 38.98%

How you voted: Israel vs Italy

Israel
12.6%
Draw
6.3%
Italy
81.0%
253
Head to Head
Sep 5, 2017 7.45pm
Group Stage
Italy
1-0
Israel
Immobile (53')
Sep 5, 2016 7.45pm
Group Stage
Israel
1-3
Italy
Ben Haim (35')
Pelle (14'), Candreva (31' pen.), Immobile (83')
Jun 8, 2013 7.30pm
Group Stage
Italy
4-0
Israel
> Match Report
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