European Championship | Group Stage
Jun 24, 2024 at 8pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Croatia1 - 1Italy
Reaction
![Croatia's Luka Modric applauds the fans after the match on June 24, 2024 [IMAGO]](https://sm.imgix.net/11/29/1x1.gif?w=1&h=1 "Croatia's Luka Modric applauds the fans after the match on June 24, 2024 [IMAGO]")
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The Match
Match Report
Italy strike in the last minute of added time to hold Croatia to a 1-1 draw and make the last 16 of Euro 2024, finishing second in Group B.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Monday's European Championship clash between Croatia and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Croatia could line up for Monday's Euro 2024 clash with Italy.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Croatia 2-2 Albania
Wednesday, June 19 at 2pm in European Championship
Wednesday, June 19 at 2pm in European Championship
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Spain | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Italy | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Albania | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Croatia | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 36.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Croatia | Draw | Italy |
36.78% ( 0.15) | 25.48% ( -0.02) | 37.74% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 56.05% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.14% ( 0.09) | 47.85% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.96% ( 0.08) | 70.03% ( -0.09) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.6% ( 0.12) | 25.4% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.79% ( 0.17) | 60.2% ( -0.17) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.13% ( -0.03) | 24.87% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.52% ( -0.04) | 59.47% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
Croatia 36.78%
Italy 37.74%
Draw 25.47%
| Croatia | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 8.66% ( -0) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.93% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 36.78% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.32% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.47% | 0-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.38% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.89% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.66% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.35% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.8% Total : 37.74% |
How you voted: Croatia vs Italy
Croatia
21.6%Draw
35.6%Italy
42.8%908
Head to Head
Jun 12, 2015 7.45pm
Qualifiers
Croatia
1-1
Italy
Jun 14, 2012 5pm
Group Stage
Italy
1-1
Croatia
Form Guide
Build-up
How Croatia could line up against Italy
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Croatia could line up for Monday's Euro 2024 clash with Italy.
278 days ago
How Italy could line up against Croatia
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Monday's Euro 2024 clash with Croatia.
278 days ago
