MX23RW : Wednesday, December 25 08:36:51| >> :60:1168:1168:
Italy national football team
Friendlies 1
Mar 21, 2024 at 9pm UK
Inter Miami CF Stadium
Venezuela national football team

Italy
2 - 1
Venezuela

Retegui (40', 80')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Machis (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's friendly clash between Italy and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Thursday's international friendly against Venezuela.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions
Last Game: Ukraine 0-0 Italy
Monday, November 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group C Standings P GD PTS
1England81820
2Italy8714
3Ukraine8314
4North Macedonia8-108
5Malta8-180

Venezuela

All competitions
Last Game: Colombia 1-0 Venezuela
Sunday, December 10 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies

We said: Italy 2-1 Venezuela

 Though Venezuela have shown signs of improvement, Italy are also trying to turn over a new leaf under Luciano Spalletti, who is not afraid to take the game to any opponent. The reigning European champions should have too much depth for their South American counterparts to contend with, but it could be a fairly close contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 76.35%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 7.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.96%) and 3-0 (11.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.

Result
ItalyDrawVenezuela
76.35% (0.015000000000001 0.02) 15.69% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01) 7.96% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 41.87% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.3% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)42.7% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.9% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)65.1% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.59% (0.0019999999999953 0)9.42% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.34% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)31.66% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Venezuela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
46.22% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)53.78% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.86% (-0.016 -0.02)87.14% (0.015999999999991 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Italy 76.34%
    Venezuela 7.96%
    Draw 15.69%
ItalyDrawVenezuela
2-0 @ 14.13% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
1-0 @ 11.96%
3-0 @ 11.13% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.77% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
3-1 @ 6.91% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 6.58% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 4.08% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
5-0 @ 3.11% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.14% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
5-1 @ 1.93%
4-2 @ 1.27% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
6-0 @ 1.22% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 76.34%
1-1 @ 7.42% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-0 @ 5.06% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-2 @ 2.72% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 15.69%
0-1 @ 3.14% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-2 @ 2.3% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 0.97% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 1.54%
Total : 7.96%

How you voted: Venezuela vs Italy

Venezuela
25.6%
Draw
18.6%
Italy
55.8%
86
rhs 2.0
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