Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Wembley Stadium

England
3 - 1
Italy

Kane (32' pen., 77'), Rashford (57')
Phillips (9')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Scamacca (15')
Udogie (10'), Di Lorenzo (30'), Scalvini (65')

Harry Kane breaks Sir Bobby Charlton record in Italy triumph

Harry Kane breaks an England goalscoring record set by Sir Bobby Charlton as the Three Lions overcome Italy 3-1 to qualify for Euro 2024.

Oct 18, 08:15

England head coach Gareth Southgate reacts on October 17, 2023

Gareth Southgate hails England for topping "toughest qualifying group"

Gareth Southgate lavishes praise on England for coming through the "toughest" Euro 2024 qualifying group after their 3-1 beating of reigning champions Italy.

Oct 18, 08:34

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

England

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: England 1-0 Australia
Friday, October 13 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	5	14	13
2	Italy	5	6	10
3	Ukraine	6	1	10
4	North Macedonia	6	-7	7
5	Malta	6	-14	0

Italy

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Italy 4-0 Malta
Saturday, October 14 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	5	14	13
2	Italy	5	6	10
3	Ukraine	6	1	10
4	North Macedonia	6	-7	7
5	Malta	6	-14	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Italy had a probability of 20.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.19%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that England would win this match.

Result
England	Draw	Italy
55.66% ( 2.94)	23.66% ( -0.56)	20.68% ( -2.39)

Both teams to score 50.72% (

-1.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.42% (

-0.36)

49.57% (

0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.39% (

-0.32)

71.6% (

0.31)

England Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.34% (

0.97)

17.65% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.72% (

1.66)

48.27% (

-1.67)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.59% (

-2.53)

38.4% (

2.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.84% (

-2.51)

75.15% (

2.5)

Score Analysis

England 55.65%

Italy 20.68%

Draw 23.65%

England	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 11.75% ( 0.52) 2-0 @ 10.19% ( 0.75) 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.61) 3-1 @ 5.64% ( 0.22) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 2.56% ( 0.33) 4-1 @ 2.45% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 3.55% Total : 55.65%	1-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 6.78% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.29) Other @ 0.96% Total : 23.65%	0-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.36) 1-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.52) 0-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.41) 1-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.3) 2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.2) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.21) Other @ 1.5% Total : 20.68%