Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 23, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Italy
1 - 2
England

Retegui (56')
Di Lorenzo (53'), Jorginho (61'), Acerbi (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Rice (13'), Kane (44' pen.)
Rice (29'), Maguire (57'), Walker (71'), Shaw (78')

Harry Kane's record-breaking England goals in numbers

Following Harry Kane's record-breaking 54th England goal, Sports Mole takes a look at the key numbers behind the 29-year-old's historic tally.

Mar 24, 09:33

Harry Kane celebrates scoring for England on March 23, 2023

Harry Kane: 'Breaking England record means everything to me'

England captain Harry Kane opens up on a "magical moment" after breaking Wayne Rooney's all-time goalscoring record for the Three Lions.

Mar 24, 07:47

Italy manager Roberto Mancini pictured on March 23, 2023

Roberto Mancini: 'Italy deserved a draw against England'

Italy manager Roberto Mancini believes a draw against England would have been a fair result, despite their 2-1 home loss in their opening Euro 2024 qualifier on Thursday.

Mar 23, 22:42

Harry Kane becomes England's all-time record goalscorer

Harry Kane becomes England's all-time record goalscorer, surpassing Wayne Rooney with a 54th strike during their Euro 2024 qualifier against Italy.

Mar 23, 20:30

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions

Last Game: Austria 2-0 Italy
Sunday, November 20 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current League A3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Italy	6	1	11
2	Hungary	6	3	10
3	Germany	6	2	7
4	England	6	-6	3

England

All competitions

Last Game: England 1-2 France
Saturday, December 10 at 7pm in World Cup

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	3	7	7
2	USA	3	1	5
3	Iran	3	-3	3
4	Wales	3	-5	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 38.6%. A win for Italy had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.96%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Italy win was 1-0 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that England would win this match.

Result
Italy	Draw	England
33.04% ( 2.63)	28.36% ( 0.05)	38.6% ( -2.68)

Both teams to score 46.44% (

0.61)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.2% (

0.39)

59.79% (

-0.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.92% (

0.3)

80.08% (

-0.3)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.38% (

2.11)

33.61% (

-2.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.74% (

2.24)

70.26% (

-2.25)

England Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.96% (

-1.36)

30.04% (

1.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.83% (

-1.66)

66.17% (

1.66)

Score Analysis

Italy 33.03%

England 38.59%

Draw 28.35%

Italy	Draw	England
1-0 @ 11% ( 0.46) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.44) 2-0 @ 6% ( 0.57) 3-1 @ 2.62% ( 0.3) 3-0 @ 2.18% ( 0.32) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.43% Total : 33.03%	1-1 @ 13.23% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 10.09% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.35%	0-1 @ 12.14% ( -0.65) 1-2 @ 7.96% ( -0.26) 0-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.69) 1-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.23) 0-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.4) 2-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.37% Total : 38.59%