We said: Austria 0-1 Italy
Despite the mercurial presence of Serie A star Arnautovic, Austria have struggled to score of late - finding the net just four times in their last six matches. As a few tweaks to the Azzurri's formation and personnel seem to be paying dividends, Italy can finish a largely dismal 2022 with victory in Vienna.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 48.98%. A win for Austria had a probability of 26.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.53%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Austria win was 1-0 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.