Despite the mercurial presence of Serie A star Arnautovic, Austria have struggled to score of late - finding the net just four times in their last six matches. As a few tweaks to the Azzurri's formation and personnel seem to be paying dividends, Italy can finish a largely dismal 2022 with victory in Vienna. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 48.98%. A win for Austria had a probability of 26.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.53%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Austria win was 1-0 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
Austria	Draw	Italy
26.93% ( -2.61)	24.08% ( -0.77)	48.98% ( 3.37)

Both teams to score 56.55% (

0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.68% (

1.72)

45.32% (

-1.72)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.34% (

1.62)

67.66% (

-1.63)

Austria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.47% (

-1.01)

30.53% (

1.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.24% (

-1.22)

66.75% (

1.22)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.41% (

2.09)

18.59% (

-2.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.13% (

3.4)

49.87% (

-3.41)

Score Analysis

Austria 26.93%

Italy 48.98%

Draw 24.08%

Austria	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 6.73% ( -0.72) 2-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.44) 2-0 @ 3.99% ( -0.55) 3-1 @ 2.66% ( -0.26) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.27) Other @ 3.01% Total : 26.93%	1-1 @ 11.33% ( -0.4) 0-0 @ 5.68% ( -0.43) 2-2 @ 5.65% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.08%	0-1 @ 9.55% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 9.53% ( 0.28) 0-2 @ 8.03% ( 0.45) 1-3 @ 5.35% ( 0.49) 0-3 @ 4.51% ( 0.52) 2-3 @ 3.17% ( 0.21) 1-4 @ 2.25% ( 0.34) 0-4 @ 1.9% ( 0.33) 2-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.17) Other @ 3.37% Total : 48.98%