Both sides will have one eye on the future this week, so a certain amount of experimentation could take place; creating a more open contest. Even so, Mancini's men boast sufficient quality across the pitch to both blood fresh talent and continue their recent renaissance with another win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 57.6%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Albania had a probability of 17.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.77%) and 1-2 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for an Albania win it was 1-0 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
Albania	Draw	Italy
17.99% ( 0.02)	24.41% ( 0)	57.6% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 44.36% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.17% (

0.01)

55.82% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.05% (

0.01)

76.95% (

-0.01)

Albania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.94% (

0.03)

45.05% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.02% (

0.02)

80.97% (

-0.02)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.73% (

-0.01)

19.27% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49% (

-0.01)

50.99% (

Score Analysis

Albania 17.99%

Italy 57.59%

Draw 24.4%

Albania	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 6.92% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.54% ( 0) 2-0 @ 2.76% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.21% ( 0) 3-2 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 1.56% Total : 17.99%	1-1 @ 11.39% 0-0 @ 8.68% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0) Other @ 0.59% Total : 24.4%	0-1 @ 14.29% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 11.77% 1-2 @ 9.39% ( 0) 0-3 @ 6.46% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.15% 0-4 @ 2.66% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.12% 2-3 @ 2.05% ( 0) Other @ 3.7% Total : 57.59%