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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Italy national football team
Nations League | League A
Jun 4, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
 
Germany national football team

Italy
1 - 1
Germany

Pellegrini (70')
Pellegrini (51'), Florenzi (62'), Tonali (66'), Bastoni (80'), Cancellieri (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kimmich (73')
Kehrer (62'), Havertz (83'), Werner (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Nations League clash between Italy and Germany, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Germany could line up for Saturday's Nations League clash with Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

Last Six:
Last Game: Italy 2-1 Hungary
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: England vs. Italy
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Germany

Last Six:
Last Game: Germany 1-1 England
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: Hungary vs. Germany
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Italy 0-1 Germany

 Few would have predicted such difficult times ahead for the European champions so soon after their crowning glory last July, but morale-drained Italy are a shadow of their former selves and now enter a tricky transition. Germany are far further ahead in their development, and can find goals from a variety of sources, so should return home with an opening Nations League victory before reconvening with old foes England next week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Italy had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Italy win was 2-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.

Result
ItalyDrawGermany
30.85% (0.174 0.17) 23.62% (0.027999999999999 0.03) 45.53% (-0.203 -0.2)
Both teams to score 60.94% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.24% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)40.75% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.85% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)63.14% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.48% (0.085999999999999 0.09)25.51% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.63% (0.116 0.12)60.36% (-0.116 -0.12)
Germany Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.81% (-0.101 -0.1)18.18% (0.1 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.82% (-0.17 -0.17)49.18% (0.17 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Italy 30.85%
    Germany 45.53%
    Draw 23.61%
ItalyDrawGermany
2-1 @ 7.38% (0.028 0.03)
1-0 @ 6.34% (0.029 0.03)
2-0 @ 4.33% (0.03 0.03)
3-1 @ 3.36% (0.021 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.86% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.97% (0.019 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.15% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.98% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 30.85%
1-1 @ 10.8% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.29% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 4.64% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.63%
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 23.61%
1-2 @ 9.21% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-1 @ 7.91% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.74% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-3 @ 5.23% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-3 @ 3.83% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3.57% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.23% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-4 @ 1.63% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.52% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.65%
Total : 45.53%

How you voted: Italy vs Germany

Italy
20.1%
Draw
22.2%
Germany
57.7%
418
Head to Head
Mar 31, 2020 7.45pm
Germany
P-P
Italy
Nov 15, 2016 7.45pm
Italy
0-0
Germany

Tah (61'), Gundogan (84')
> Match Report
Jul 2, 2016 8pm
Germany
1-1
Italy
Ozil (65')
Hummels (90'), Schweinsteiger (112')
Bonucci (78' pen.)
Sturaro (56'), De Sciglio (57'), Parolo (59'), Pelle (91'), Giaccherini (103')
> Match Report
Mar 29, 2016 7.45pm
Germany
4-1
Italy
Kroos (24'), Gotze (45'), Hector (59'), Ozil (75' pen.)
Hummels (57'), Mustafi (77')
El Shaarawy (83')
Giaccherini (15')
> Match Report
Nov 15, 2013 7.45pm
Italy
1-1
Germany
Abate (28')
Marchisio (70'), Motta (82')
Hummels (8')
Lahm (54'), Kroos (82')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
Sunday, June 23
 
8pm
Group Stage
Scotland
vs.
Hungary
> Preview
 
8pm
Group Stage
Switzerland
vs.
Germany
> Preview
Monday, June 24
 
8pm
Group Stage
Albania
vs.
Spain
> Preview
 
8pm
Group Stage
Croatia
vs.
Italy
> Preview
Tuesday, June 25
 
5pm
Group Stage
France
vs.
Poland
 
5pm
Group Stage
Netherlands
vs.
Austria
 
8pm
Group Stage
Denmark
vs.
Serbia
 
8pm
Group Stage
England
vs.
Slovenia
Wednesday, June 26
 
5pm
Group Stage
Slovakia
vs.
Romania
 
5pm
Group Stage
Ukraine
vs.
Belgium
 
8pm
Group Stage
Czech Republic
vs.
Turkey
 
8pm
Group Stage
Georgia
vs.
Portugal
Saturday, June 29
 
5pm
Round of 16
2nd Group A
vs.
2nd Group B
 
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group A
vs.
2nd Group C
Sunday, June 30
 
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group C
vs.
3rd Group D/E/F
 
8pm
Round of 16
Spain
vs.
3rd Group A/D/E/F
Monday, July 1
 
5pm
Round of 16
2nd Group D
vs.
2nd Group E
 
8pm
Round of 16
Portugal
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C
Tuesday, July 2
 
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group E
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C/D
 
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group D
vs.
2nd Group F
Friday, July 5
 
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 39
vs.
Winner Match 37
 
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 41
vs.
Winner Match 42
Saturday, July 6
 
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 40
vs.
Winner Match 38
 
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 43
vs.
Winner Match 44
Tuesday, July 9
 
8pm
Semi-Finals
Winner Quarter-final 1
vs.
Winner Quarter-final 2
Wednesday, July 10
 
8pm
Semi-Finals
Winner Quarter-final 3
vs.
Winner Quarter-final 4
Sunday, July 14
 
8pm
Final
Winner SF1
vs.
Winner SF2
> View full version> Results
Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany22006
2 Switzerland Switzerland21104
3 Scotland flag Scotland20111
4 Hungary Hungary20020

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain22006
2 Italy Italy21013
3 Albania national flag Albania20111
4 Croatia Croatia20111

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 England flag England21104
2 Denmark Denmark20202
3 Slovenia Slovenia20202
4 Serbia Serbia20111

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Netherlands Netherlands21104
2 France France21104
3 Austria Austria21013
4 Poland Poland20020

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Romania Romania21013
2 Belgium Belgium21013
3 Slovakia Slovakia21013
4 Ukraine Ukraine21013

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal22006
2 Turkey Turkey21013
3 Czech Republic Czech Republic20111
4 Georgia Georgia20111
> European Championship 2024 overview


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