World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage
Mar 23, 2025 at 1pm UK
Nyayo National Stadium
Kenya1 - 2Gabon
FT(HT: 0-1)
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Gambia 3-3 Kenya
Thursday, March 20 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Thursday, March 20 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Algeria | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Kenya | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | -6 | 0 |
We said: Kenya 1-0 Gabon
Gabon have had the stronger campaign so far, and while they have not been particularly dominant across all competitions — registering four wins, two draws and three defeats in their last nine matches — they have shown resilience on the road, claiming two victories and a draw. However, Kenya's long-awaited return to home soil, backed by a passionate crowd at Nyayo Stadium, could tilt the balance in their favour in a contest where both teams are likely to find the net. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gabon win with a probability of 40.18%. A draw had a probability of 30.6% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 29.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gabon win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.25%) and 1-2 (7.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.43%), while for a Kenya win it was 1-0 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gabon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kenya | Draw | Gabon |
29.27% ( -0.04) | 30.55% ( -0.02) | 40.18% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 39.72% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.53% ( 0.05) | 67.47% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.42% ( 0.03) | 85.58% ( -0.03) |
| Kenya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.31% ( -0) | 40.69% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.72% ( -0.01) | 77.28% ( 0) |
| Gabon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.98% ( 0.06) | 33.02% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.39% ( 0.07) | 69.61% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
Kenya 29.27%
Gabon 40.17%
Draw 30.54%
| Kenya | Draw | Gabon |
| 1-0 @ 12.08% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.02% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.8% 3-0 @ 1.63% ( -0)3-2 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 1.31% Total : 29.27% | 0-0 @ 13.43% ( -0.03) 1-1 @ 13.38% 2-2 @ 3.33% ( 0)Other @ 0.39% Total : 30.54% | 0-1 @ 14.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 7.42% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0)Other @ 2.61% Total : 40.17% |
How you voted: Kenya vs Gabon
Kenya
60.0%Draw
20.0%Gabon
20.0%20
Head to Head
