World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Nov 16, 2023 at 4pm UK

Stade de Franceville

Gabon
2 - 1
Kenya

Bouanga (60'), Kanga (88')
Allevinah (45+2'), Bouanga (76'), Loufilou (82')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Juma (40')
Omar (45+2'), Juma (66'), Akumu (82')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Gabon and Kenya, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gabon

All competitions

Last Game: Guinea 1-1 Gabon
Tuesday, October 17 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	3	7
2	Gabon	3	1	5
3	Comoros	3	-2	3
4	Ghana	3	-2	1

Kenya

All competitions

Last Game: Kenya 2-2 Russia
Monday, October 16 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Algeria	3	6	9
2	Senegal	3	4	6
3	Kenya	3	-4	3
4	Tanzania	3	-6	0

Despite their recent struggles, Gabon will be backing themselves to kick off the qualifiers on a high as they return home where they have lost just one competitive game in the last four years. While we expect Kenya to put up a fight, we predict that the Panthers will come away with a narrow victory in front of their home supporters. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gabon win with a probability of 58.97%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 16.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gabon win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.75%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for a Kenya win it was 0-1 (7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Gabon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Gabon.

Result
Gabon	Draw	Kenya
58.97% ( 0.11)	24.75% ( -0.05)	16.27% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 40.53% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.75% (

0.09)

59.24% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.34% (

0.07)

79.66% (

-0.08)

Gabon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.93% (

0.08)

20.06% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.7% (

0.13)

52.29% (

-0.13)

Kenya Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.7% (

-0.03)

49.29% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.83% (

-0.02)

84.16% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Gabon 58.96%

Kenya 16.27%

Draw 24.75%

Gabon	Draw	Kenya
1-0 @ 15.88% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 12.75% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.83% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.74% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.25% Total : 58.96%	1-1 @ 11.23% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.89% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.19% Other @ 0.43% Total : 24.75%	0-1 @ 7% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 1.89% Total : 16.27%