Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 18, 2023 at 7pm UK

Stade de Franceville

Gabon
0 - 2
Congo DR

Allevinah (21'), Lemina (55')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Tshibola (34'), Mayele (83')
Batubinsika (59'), Tshibola (73'), Mpasi-Nzau (80')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Gabon and Congo DR, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gabon

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Sudan 1-0 Gabon
Monday, March 27 at 9pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	3	7
2	Gabon	3	1	5
3	Comoros	3	-2	3
4	Ghana	3	-2	1

Congo DR

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Congo DR 1-0 Uganda
Wednesday, June 14 at 4pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Egypt	3	5	9
2	Uganda	3	0	4
3	Congo DR	3	0	3
4	Zimbabwe	3	-5	1

Despite losing the last time these sides met, DR Congo dominated the match in every aspect but could not find the net in 16 attempts on goal, while Gabon scored one of only two shots on target to claim the win. We still expect The Leopards to create loads of chances in this one, but with Gabon likely to be the happier of the two with taking a share of the spoils, we could see them sitting back and soaking up the pressure, which they are very capable of doing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gabon win with a probability of 62.78%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Congo DR had a probability of 12.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gabon win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.58%) and 2-1 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.18%), while for a Congo DR win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.

Result
Gabon	Draw	Congo DR
62.78% ( -1.82)	24.27% ( 0.64)	12.96% ( 1.18)

Both teams to score 35.08% (

1.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.49% (

0.03)

62.51% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.89% (

0.02)

82.11% (

-0.02)

Gabon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.11% (

-0.67)

19.89% (

0.68)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.99% (

-1.1)

52.01% (

1.11)

Congo DR Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

43.79% (

2.04)

56.21% (

-2.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.41% (

1.14)

88.59% (

-1.14)

Score Analysis

Gabon 62.77%

Congo DR 12.96%

Draw 24.27%

Gabon	Draw	Congo DR
1-0 @ 18.05% ( -0.41) 2-0 @ 14.58% ( -0.64) 2-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.17) 3-0 @ 7.85% ( -0.52) 3-1 @ 4.52% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.28) 4-1 @ 1.83% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.05% Total : 62.77%	0-0 @ 11.18% ( -0.01) 1-1 @ 10.4% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.2) Other @ 0.27% Total : 24.27%	0-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.39) 1-2 @ 3% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.22) Other @ 1.67% Total : 12.96%