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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Italy national football team
Nations League | Third-Place Final
Oct 10, 2021 at 2pm UK
Allianz Stadium
Belgium national football team

Italy
2 - 1
Belgium

Barella (46'), Berardi (65' pen.)
Di Lorenzo (30'), Palmieri (82')
FT(HT: 0-0)
De Ketelaere (86')
Vertonghen (14'), Witsel (56'), Alderweireld (63')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League clash between Italy and Belgium, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Belgium could line up for Sunday's Nations clash with Italy.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for Italy had a probability of 35.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.13%) and 0-2 (6.08%). The likeliest Italy win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result
ItalyDrawBelgium
35.91%24.7%39.39%
Both teams to score 58.76%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.67%44.32%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.3%66.7%
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.75%24.25%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.39%58.6%
Belgium Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.57%22.43%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.04%55.95%
Score Analysis
    Italy 35.91%
    Belgium 39.39%
    Draw 24.69%
ItalyDrawBelgium
2-1 @ 8.16%
1-0 @ 7.71%
2-0 @ 5.46%
3-1 @ 3.85%
3-2 @ 2.88%
3-0 @ 2.58%
4-1 @ 1.37%
4-2 @ 1.02%
4-0 @ 0.91%
Other @ 1.98%
Total : 35.91%
1-1 @ 11.51%
2-2 @ 6.1%
0-0 @ 5.44%
3-3 @ 1.44%
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.69%
1-2 @ 8.61%
0-1 @ 8.13%
0-2 @ 6.08%
1-3 @ 4.29%
2-3 @ 3.04%
0-3 @ 3.03%
1-4 @ 1.6%
2-4 @ 1.14%
0-4 @ 1.13%
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 39.39%

How you voted: Italy vs Belgium

Italy
56.7%
Draw
16.4%
Belgium
26.9%
379
Head to Head
Jul 2, 2021 8pm
Quarter-Finals
Belgium
1-2
Italy
Lukaku (45+2' pen.)
Tielemans (21')
Barella (31'), Insigne (44')
Verratti (20'), Berardi (90')
> Match Report
Jun 13, 2016 8pm
Group Stage
Belgium
0-2
Italy

Vertonghen (91')
Giaccherini (32'), Pelle (93')
Chiellini (66'), Eder (75'), Bonucci (78'), Motta (84')
> Match Report
Nov 13, 2015 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Belgium
3-1
Italy
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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