While Italy have fared better than many expected at the start of their tricky transition from one generation to the next, they remain unconvincing in the final third and may not get on the scoresheet.
Despite a lacklustre record in the Nations League so far, Germany are further ahead in their development by comparison, and they can find a goal from one of several tried and tested sources up front.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 45.95%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Italy had a probability of 26.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.05) 
Germany
Switzerland
Scotland
Hungary
Spain
Italy
Albania
Croatia
England
Denmark
Slovenia
Serbia
Netherlands
France
Poland
Austria
Romania
Slovakia
Belgium
Ukraine
Turkey
Portugal
Czech Republic
Georgia
