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Europa League
Europa League | League Stage
Nov 7, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Aspmyra Stadion
Qarabag

Bodo/Glimt
1 - 2
Qarabag

Berg (41')
Berg (89')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Bayramov (22'), Richard (69')
Medina (78'), Kochalski (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Bodo/Glimt and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bodo/Glimt

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Molde 3-3 Bodo/Glimt
Sunday, November 3 at 4pm in Norwegian Eliteserien

Qarabag FK

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Qarabag 0-3 Ajax
Thursday, October 24 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Qarabag FK

 With 25 wins in their last 31 home games, Bodo/Glimt are near-invincible in the Arctic Circle in Europe, while Qarabag are often poor travellers and have made a very disappointing start to their continental campaign. One positive facet for the away side is that they are unbeaten in five previous meetings with Norwegian sides, and drew 2-2 with Molde on their last visit to the country a year ago, however this is a much tougher venue, and a win is needed. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bodo/Glimt win with a probability of 51.53%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 26.78% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bodo/Glimt win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.74%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-2 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.

Result
Bodo/GlimtDrawQarabag FK
51.53% (-1.247 -1.25) 21.69% (0.327 0.33) 26.78% (0.915 0.91)
Both teams to score 64.93% (-0.306 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.77% (-0.783 -0.78)34.22% (0.779 0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.88% (-0.888 -0.89)56.11% (0.883 0.88)
Bodo/Glimt Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.39% (-0.655 -0.66)13.6% (0.653 0.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.25% (-1.319 -1.32)40.74% (1.315 1.32)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.15% (0.212 0.21)24.85% (-0.216 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.55% (0.298 0.3)59.44% (-0.302 -0.3)
Score Analysis
    Bodo/Glimt 51.53%
    Qarabag FK 26.78%
    Draw 21.69%
Bodo/GlimtDrawQarabag FK
2-1 @ 9.36% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
1-0 @ 6.74% (0.108 0.11)
2-0 @ 6.73% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
3-1 @ 6.23% (-0.166 -0.17)
3-0 @ 4.47% (-0.148 -0.15)
3-2 @ 4.34% (-0.088 -0.09)
4-1 @ 3.11% (-0.161 -0.16)
4-0 @ 2.23% (-0.13 -0.13)
4-2 @ 2.16% (-0.098 -0.1)
5-1 @ 1.24% (-0.096 -0.1)
4-3 @ 1% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 3.92%
Total : 51.53%
1-1 @ 9.39% (0.208 0.21)
2-2 @ 6.52% (0.028 0.03)
0-0 @ 3.38% (0.134 0.13)
3-3 @ 2.01% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 0.39%
Total : 21.69%
1-2 @ 6.54% (0.184 0.18)
0-1 @ 4.71% (0.215 0.22)
0-2 @ 3.28% (0.169 0.17)
1-3 @ 3.03% (0.104 0.1)
2-3 @ 3.03% (0.032 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.52% (0.087 0.09)
1-4 @ 1.06% (0.042 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.05% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 26.78%

How you voted: Bodo/Glimt vs Qarabag

Bodo/Glimt
85.5%
Draw
11.4%
Qarabag FK
3.0%
166
rhs 2.0
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