Nations League | Semi-Finals
Jun 15, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
De Grolsch Veste
Spain2 - 1Italy
The Match
Match Report
Spain book their spot in the final of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League courtesy of a 2-1 victory over Italy, with Joselu netting a late winner for La Roja.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League semi-final between Spain and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Spain could line up for Thursday's UEFA Nations League semi-final against Italy.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Scotland 2-0 Spain
Tuesday, March 28 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Tuesday, March 28 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 42.98%. A win for Italy had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Italy win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spain | Draw | Italy |
42.98% ( -0.05) | 25.87% ( 0.06) | 31.15% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 53.4% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
