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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Italy national football team
Nations League | League A
Oct 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Global Energy Stadium
Israel national football team

Italy
4 - 1
Israel

Retegui (41' pen.), Di Lorenzo (54', 79'), Frattesi (72')
Cambiaso (66')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Abu Fani (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Nations League clash between Italy and Israel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Monday's UEFA Nations League clash with Israel.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Italy 2-2 Belgium
Thursday, October 10 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Israel

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Israel 1-4 France
Thursday, October 10 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Italy 2-1 Israel

 While their winning run ended on Thursday, it looks like Italy have re-found their rhythm since the Euros, so they should be too good for limited opponents in Udine. Israel have scored in each game so far, though, and they could find the net despite suffering a fourth straight defeat in Group 2. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 63.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Israel had a probability of 16.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Israel win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
ItalyDrawIsrael
63.01% (0.138 0.14) 20.69% (0.058999999999997 0.06) 16.3% (-0.197 -0.2)
Both teams to score 52.2% (-0.633 -0.63)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.42% (-0.626 -0.63)43.58% (0.626 0.63)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.03% (-0.616 -0.62)65.97% (0.616 0.62)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.79% (-0.154 -0.15)13.21% (0.154 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.06% (-0.313 -0.31)39.94% (0.313 0.31)
Israel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.14% (-0.622 -0.62)39.86% (0.622 0.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.48% (-0.578 -0.58)76.52% (0.578 0.58)
Score Analysis
    Italy 63%
    Israel 16.3%
    Draw 20.69%
ItalyDrawIsrael
2-0 @ 10.78% (0.17 0.17)
1-0 @ 10.65% (0.23 0.23)
2-1 @ 9.92% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.28% (0.073 0.07)
3-1 @ 6.7% (-0.046 -0.05)
4-0 @ 3.68% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.39% (-0.043 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.08% (-0.074 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.56% (-0.047 -0.05)
5-0 @ 1.49% (-0.002 -0)
5-1 @ 1.37% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 63%
1-1 @ 9.8% (0.046999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 5.26% (0.143 0.14)
2-2 @ 4.56% (-0.083 -0.08)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 20.69%
0-1 @ 4.84% (0.050999999999999 0.05)
1-2 @ 4.51% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-2 @ 2.23% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.4% (-0.05 -0.05)
1-3 @ 1.38% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 16.3%

How you voted: Italy vs Israel

Italy
92.8%
Draw
6.2%
Israel
1.0%
194
Head to Head
Sep 9, 2024 7.45pm
League A
Israel
1-2
Italy
Abu Fani (90')
Ben Shimon (88'), Jaber (90+4'), Yehezkel (90+2'), Revivo (90+4')
Frattesi (38'), Kean (62')
Gatti (73')
> Preview
Sep 5, 2017 7.45pm
Group Stage
Italy
1-0
Israel
Immobile (53')
Sep 5, 2016 7.45pm
Group Stage
Israel
1-3
Italy
Ben Haim (35')
Pelle (14'), Candreva (31' pen.), Immobile (83')
Jun 8, 2013 7.30pm
Group Stage
Italy
4-0
Israel
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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