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Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League | Gameweek 14
Jan 26, 2023 at 7.45am UK
AAMI Park
Sydney FC

Victory
1 - 2
Sydney FC

Brimmer (26')
Miranda (48'), Folami (72')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Burgess (32'), le Fondre (52')
Caballo (21'), Lolley (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Last Game: Perth Glory 3-1 Victory
Saturday, January 21 at 11.30am in Australian A-League

Sydney FC

All competitions
Last Game: Western Utd 1-0 Sydney FC
Saturday, January 21 at 6am in Australian A-League

We said: Melbourne Victory 1-2 Sydney FC

 We believe that Melbourne Victory's woes this season will be further compounded by Sydney, as they will edge a tight contest between the two sides. While Melbourne Victory have the better recent record in the head to heads between the two, Sydney are the more threatening side and we think that they will execute their chances more ruthlessly than their opponents to pick up a vital three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 40.04%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 35.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.19%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Sydney FC in this match.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawSydney FC
35.29% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 24.67% (-0.0039999999999978 -0) 40.04% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Both teams to score 58.78% (0.012 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.73% (0.015000000000001 0.02)44.27% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.35% (0.015000000000001 0.02)66.64% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.43% (0.0040000000000049 0)24.56% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.95% (0.0039999999999978 0)59.05% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Sydney FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.91% (0.012 0.01)22.08% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.56% (0.016999999999996 0.02)55.43% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 35.29%
    Sydney FC 40.04%
    Draw 24.67%
Melbourne VictoryDrawSydney FC
2-1 @ 8.07% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-0 @ 7.62% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-0 @ 5.35% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 3.78%
3-2 @ 2.85% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 2.5% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.33%
4-2 @ 1%
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 35.29%
1-1 @ 11.5%
2-2 @ 6.1% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 5.42% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-3 @ 1.44% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.67%
1-2 @ 8.69% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-1 @ 8.19% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 6.19%
1-3 @ 4.37% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 3.12% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-3 @ 3.07% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-4 @ 1.65% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-4 @ 1.18% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.16% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 40.04%

How you voted: Victory vs Sydney FC

Melbourne Victory
33.3%
Draw
27.0%
Sydney FC
39.7%
63
Head to Head
Oct 8, 2022 9.45am
Sydney FC
2-3
Victory
Mak (15'), Donachie (79')
Brattan (21')
D'Agostino (31'), Ikonomidis (67'), Brillante (83')
May 7, 2022 10.45am
Sydney FC
1-4
Victory
Le Fondre (16')
Retre (28'), Yazbek (77')
D'Agostino (14'), Brimmer (30'), Geria (38'), Hamill (87')
Marchan (69')
Jan 25, 2022 8.45am
Victory
2-2
Sydney FC
Folami (17'), Kruse (77')
Kelava (82')
Ninkovic (37'), Bobo (81')
Bobo (90+4'), Amini (90+8')
May 19, 2021 10.05am
Sydney FC
2-0
Victory
Bobo (10'), Barbarouses (83')
Brattan (30')

Brimmer (45'), Folami (46'), Barnett (90+3')
Apr 27, 2021 10.35am
Sydney FC
1-0
Victory
Bobo (6')

Folami (83'), Barnett (86')
rhs 2.0
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