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Europa League
Union Berlin logo
Europa League | Group Stage
Oct 27, 2022 at 5.45pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Braga

Union Berlin
1 - 0
Braga

Knoche (68' pen.)
Thorsby (33'), Ryerson (72'), Ronnow (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Silva (39'), Castro (47'), Ruiz (45+2'), Horta (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Union Berlin and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: VfL Bochum 2-1 Union Berlin
Sunday, October 23 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Braga

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Estoril 0-2 Braga
Saturday, October 22 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Union Berlin 1-0 Braga

 We expect a very cagey affair at Stadion An der Alten Forsterei, with both teams knowing the significance of this fixture in terms of progressing to the knockout stages. Whichever team scores first will feel confident of getting the result that they need, and we are backing Union Berlin to do so and hold on for a vital victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 46.53%. A win for Braga had a probability of 28.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Braga win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Union Berlin in this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawBraga
46.53% (0.072000000000003 0.07) 25.18% (0.011000000000003 0.01) 28.28% (-0.084 -0.08)
Both teams to score 53.99% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.82% (-0.092999999999996 -0.09)49.17% (0.090999999999994 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.76% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)71.24% (0.080999999999989 0.08)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.85% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)21.15% (0.004999999999999 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.99% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)54.01% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.47% (-0.111 -0.11)31.53% (0.11 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.08% (-0.126 -0.13)67.92% (0.125 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 46.53%
    Braga 28.28%
    Draw 25.18%
Union BerlinDrawBraga
1-0 @ 10.36% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.29% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 8.05% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.81% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-0 @ 4.17% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.78% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.87%
4-0 @ 1.62% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.08% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 46.53%
1-1 @ 11.95%
0-0 @ 6.67% (0.024 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.36% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.18%
0-1 @ 7.7% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-2 @ 6.9% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4.44% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.66% (-0.015 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.06% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.71% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 28.28%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Braga

Union Berlin
73.7%
Draw
14.7%
Braga
11.6%
190
Head to Head
Sep 15, 2022 8pm
Group D
Braga
1-0
Union Berlin
Oliveira (77')

Schafer (27')
rhs 2.0
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