Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queen of the South win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 34.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queen of the South win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Queen of the South would win this match.