Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stenhousemuir win with a probability of 43.58%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 30.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stenhousemuir win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stenhousemuir would win this match.