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Six Nations | Group Stage
Feb 1, 2025 at 2.15pm UK
 
Scotland
vs.
Italy

Preview: Scotland vs. Italy - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Six Nations clash between Scotland and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Murrayfield Stadium will burst into life this weekend when Scotland get their 2025 Six Nations campaign underway against Italy on Saturday afternoon.

The hosts finished fourth for the fourth time in five years in the last edition of this competition, while Italy showed tremendous improvement, finishing just one point behind them in fifth.


Match preview

Scotland's Duhan van der Merwe on January 30, 2025© Imago

Scotland will begin their quest to claim their first-ever Six Nations title this weekend, but for some reason, this season feels a little different - almost as though there is not the same sense of optimism as there was in the past few campaigns.

Given that perspective, you could view Scotland as being on the verge of winning a Six Nations title, or as a team at risk of finishing with the Wooden Spoon, depending on whether you are seeing the glass half full or half empty.

Much of that is owed to their mid and end-of-year Test performances, where despite winning seven of eight, only two of those were against Tier 1 opposition, and they lost one of those fairly poorly against the Springboks, suggesting that they will likely struggle against the likes of Ireland and France again this year.

What we saw in 2024 was the Scots foregoing their usual expansive style of getting the ball to their outside backs, opting instead to kick the ball more than any other team in the Six Nations (34.2 kicks per game on average).

However, what remained constant is that Gregor Townsend's side ended the last tournament with the best tackle success rate, marking the fourth time they have done so in the last five seasons, with the exception coming in 2022.

With the home advantage and facing a favourable opponent, the hosts will be determined to make a solid start and pick up a bonus point before welcoming the Shamrocks to Edinburgh next weekend.

Italy's back row Sebastian Negri  on January 30, 2025© Imago

Meanwhile, last year was one that Italian fans will look back on fondly, as they saw their team make giant strides forward, going unbeaten in their final three games of the Six Nations, winning two and drawing one.

One of those victories came against the Scots 31-29 at Stadio Olimpico, while either side of that they held France to an incredible 13-13 draw in Lille and stunned Wales 24-21 at the Millenium Stadium in the final week of the competition.

Not only did those results help the Azzurri hand over the Wooden Spoon after eight consecutive seasons, but it also marked the first time they avoided defeat in three successive matches since joining the competition back in 2000.

Victories over Tonga and Japan in July followed by a November triumph against Georgia meant that Gonzalo Quesada's men ended 2024 with five wins in total - the third straight year in which they won at least four games - which is a significant achievement considering they had not won more than three matches in a calendar year since 2012.

For the Azzurri, this year will likely be focused on proving that their recent success is not just a fleeting moment, but a sign that they are truly turning into a formidable force on the international stage.

Scotland form (all competitions):

  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W


Italy form (all competitions):

  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L


Team News

Sione Tuipulotu of Scotland on January 30, 2025© Imago

With regular team captain Sione Tuipulotu out due to injury, fly-half Finn Russell and openside flanker Rory Darge will co-captain the team against the Azzurri in this opening round of the competition.

Ben White will continue his partnership with Russell in the half-backs, while Townsend has gone for a powerful back-three, featuring flyers Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe on the wings, with Blair Kinghorn at full-back.

In the pack, Matt Fagerson starts at number eight, marking his 50th Test cap for Scotland and he is accompanied by co-captain Darge, with Jamie Ritchie rounding out the loose trio.

Quesada has stuck with the same back three initially chosen for Italy's 2024 tournament opener, with Tommaso Allan - Italy's most-capped active player and all-time top scorer in the Six Nations - set to start at full-back, joined by wingers Ange Capuozzo and Monty Ioane.

The centre combination is a familiar one, with Juan Ignacio Brex teaming up with 2024 Six Nations Player of the Tournament Tommaso Menoncello, while Paolo Garbisi and Martin Page-Relo will pair up in the half-back positions.

In the back row, Lorenzo Cannone starts at number eight, captain Michele Lamaro and Sebastian Negri will operate on the open and blindside respectively, while Federico Ruzza lines up with Dino Lamb in the second row.


Scotland starting lineup: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Stafford McDowall, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (cc), 9 Ben White, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Rory Darge (cc), 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Jonny Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Pierre Schoeman

Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Gregor Brown, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 George Horne, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Kyle Rowe

Italy starting lineup: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Dino Lamb, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti

Replacements: 16 GIanmarco Lucchesi, 17 Luca Rizzoli, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Niccolo Cannone, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Simone Gesi


SM words green background

We say: Scotland 32-21 Italy

While Italy upset the odds in this fixture last season in Rome, beating Scotland at what should be a packed house at Murrayfield presents a much bigger challenge. The hosts have won each of their last six matches against the Azzurri at this venue and we feel they will extend that record with another victory in this one.

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Written by
Devesh Jaganath

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