Battle-hardened Madison Keys is red-hot Down Under heading into Saturday's Australian Open final tussle with three-peat-chasing Aryna Sabalenka.
The American, fresh off eliminating the second seed Iga Swiatek in the first women's semi-final to be decided by a 10-point tie-break, seeks to stun the world No. 1, who enters the 2025 championship match as the favourite for a third consecutive victory at Melbourne Park.
Match preview
© Imago
Does anyone remember four-time tour-level champion and former world No. 15 Kaia Kanepi? Well, she was the last woman to get the better of Sabalenka in Australia, clinching a comeback 5-7, 6-2, 7-6(7) fourth-round success over the Belarusian in 2022.
Since that shock loss to a player that began that year's tournament No. 115 in the world, the 18-time WTA Tour champion has racked up 20 consecutive triumphs Down Under, winning all but two matches in straight sets.
Elena Rybakina taking the opener off Sabalenka in the 2023 final meant the 26-year-old needed to roar back from a set down to clinch her maiden Grand Slam victory, and a second-set hiccup against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarters this year ended the top seed's run of 11 straight-set triumphs at Melbourne Park, her favourite playground.
Another comfortable result in Australia saw the top seed dispatch close friend Paula Badosa in straight sets in one hour and 26 minutes, breaking the Spaniard's serve four times from nine opportunities — the 27th time she has found a way against her opponents this year.
Sabalenka's latest victory at the Aussie Open saw the women's No. 1 join seven other women in the Open Era – Margaret Court (1969-1971), Evonne Goolagong ('71-'77), Martina Navratilova ('81-'83), Steffi Graf ('88-'90), Monica Seles ('91-'93), Martina Hingis ('97-'99) and Serena Williams (2015-2017) – to reach three successive championship matches at the tournament.
Now, she seeks Melbourne immortality to be the first woman since Hingis to claim the three-peat Down Under.
That will be far from straightforward against a woman who never knows when she is beaten, highlighted by Keys's run to Saturday's decider.
© Imago
The 29-year-old has embraced drawn-out matches on her 11th appearance at the opening Slam of the year, sealing three-set wins over qualifier Elena-Gabriela Ruse, Rybakina, Elina Svitolina and Swiatek, defeating her last two opponents having dropped the opening set.
Beating Swiatek showed nerves of steel against the second seed, who was chasing her first final in Melbourne after resounding defeats over opponents and with a 4-1 win-loss record against Keys before Thursday.
However, the battle-hardened Keys responded with a bang in set two to force a decider in the eventual 5-7, 6-1, 7-6[10-8] win over the five-time Grand Slam champion, outwitting the Polish superstar in a wildly exciting third set that literally went the distance with the decisive tie-break.
Keys had failed to convert two break points to lead 5-3 in the third before Swiatek had four opportunities to edge ahead 5-4 taken away by the American player, whose hard-hitting made her younger opponent uncomfortable.
Thursday's success means Keys is back in a Slam final for the first time since her 2017 run to the US Open decider before falling to countrywoman Sloane Stephens, an eight-year gap that eclipsed Amelie Mauresmo's seven-year wait between 1999 and 2006, both at the Australian Open.
The 29-year-old is the oldest women's singles finalist Down Under since Serena and Venus Williams in 2017, and the nine-time tour champion aims to succeed where she failed in New York in 2017.
Keys, whose matches have crossed the two-hour mark on two occasions, has defeated two top-10 opponents during her run – Rybakina and Swiatek – and seeks a hat-trick by defeating Sabalenka. In this form, you would not bet against the 19th seed.
Tournament so far
Aryna Sabalenka:
First round: vs. Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2
Second round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5
Third round: vs. Clara Tauson 7-6[5] 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2 2-6 6-3
Semi-final: vs. Paula Badosa 6-4 6-2
Madison Keys:
First round: vs. Ann Li 6-4 7-5
Second round: vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse 7-6[1] 2-6 7-5
Third round: vs. Danielle Collins 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Elena Rybakina 6-3 1-6 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Elina Svitolina 3-6 6-3 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 5-7 6-1 7-6[8]
Head To Head
Beijing (2024) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-4 6-3
US Open (2023) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5)
Wimbledon (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-2 6-4
Berlin (2021) - Round of 16: Keys 6-4 1-6 7-5
Cincinnati (2018) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-3 6-4
Keys trails in her head-to-head with Sabalenka, with the Belarusian 4-1 up heading into the pair's sixth tour match-up.
However, the United States player also had a losing record before roaring back against Swiatek in Friday's semi-final, suggesting that she would not be held back by historical precedent.
Sabalenka has notched victories in all three meetings on hard courts, most recently at last year's WTA 1000 event in Beijing – a last-16 match claimed in straight sets – while the American's only success was four years ago at a grass-court event in Berlin.
Since losing to Sabalenka in Beijing, the 29-year-old Keys has secured four consecutive wins over top-10 players, defeating Daria Kasatkina and Jessica Pegula en route to her Adelaide success and Rybakina and Swiatek at the Aussie Open – she is now 9-13 against the elite at the majors.
After Friday's success over the second seed, Keys improved to 7-0 in her last matches to go to a decider, though Sabalenka is 5-1 in such encounters, losing only a dead rubber to Rybakina in Riyadh.
Sabalenka, unbeaten in 11 matches this year, is aiming to improve to 12-0 against an opponent on an 11-match sequence of wins since losing to Clara Tauson in Auckland.
We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets
When it all comes together, Keys packs a punch with her fierce ball-striking and all-or-nothing approach on court.
The American star is in the form of her life and aims to defeat the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds en route to a maiden Grand Slam title in Melbourne.
However, this is Sabalenka's time; the three-peat is one win away, and while the pressure of the occasion allied with Keys's bravado, regardless of the situation, should see the 19th seed claim a set, the top-ranked women's player should snap her opponent's winning run for a third Grand Slam title Down Under and fourth overall.
