Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 8, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Saroldi
River Plate0 - 4Penarol
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between River Plate and Penarol.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Boston River 0-0 River Plate
Saturday, March 4 at 10.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Saturday, March 4 at 10.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Penarol 2-1 Maldonado
Sunday, March 5 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Sunday, March 5 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 27.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.65%) and 1-2 (8.55%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Penarol |
27.99% ( -0.22) | 27.83% ( 0.2) | 44.18% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 45.98% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
