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Preview: Jack Draper vs. Mattia Bellucci - prediction, form, head-to-head

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Japan Open first-round match between Jack Draper and Mattia Bellucci, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

Returning to ATP Tour territory for the first time since an inspirational US Open run, Jack Draper squares up to Italy's Mattia Bellucci in round one of the Japan Open on Thursday.

The British number one experienced a disappointing Davis Cup campaign after reaching the last four in New York but will be the firm favourite against an opponent on the verge of breaking into the top 100.


Match preview

Jack Draper reacts at the US Open on September 6, 2024© Imago

Emulating 2012 Andy Murray by becoming the first British man since the three-time major winner to reach the semi-finals of the US Open, Draper did not collapse under the weight of the occasion against Jannik Sinner, in spite of his distressing vomiting episodes.

The 22-year-old defied his unhappy stomach to valiantly fight on, but the might of the fully-fit world number one proved too challenging to overcome, as Draper's best-ever Grand Slam run to date ended with a semi-final exit to the eventual champion.

Nevertheless, the latest zenith in Draper's burgeoning career carried the British number one into the top 20 of the ATP Tour rankings, and he had little time to dwell on his fabulous Flushing Meadows run, as he donned the GB strip for the Davis Cup Finals group stage.

However, after such a gruelling week across the Atlantic, Draper was not operating at the peak of his powers; after being omitted from the opening bout with Finland, he suffered back-to-back losses to Francisco Cerundolo of Argentina and Canada's Felix Auger-Aliassime, failing to win a set off either man.

Neither defeat was a thrashing by any stretch, though, and a well-rested Draper now sets off on a mission to pick up his inaugural win at the Japan Open, having lost on his tournament debut to Australia's Alex de Minaur in 2023 after coming through qualifying.

Mattia Bellucci in action at Wimbledon on July 1, 2024© Imago

Coincidentally, Draper's less distinguished foe Bellucci had to fight his way through this year's preliminary rounds to earn a spot in the main draw of the Japan Open, and the Italian laid down a couple of markers by eliminating two of the qualifying seeds.

After a come-from-behind 4-6 6-2 7-6[3] over France's Alexandre Muller, Bellucci - who was an alternate for qualifying to begin with - made extremely light work of Rinky Hijikata in a 6-3 6-1 triumph to set up a first-round contest with Draper.

The 23-year-old converted four of the six break points he fashioned against Hijitaka and restricted the Australian to just one break opportunity over the course of the match - which he beat away - to continue his eye-catching progress in a breakthrough 2024.

Bellucci made his debuts at the French Open, Wimbledon and US Open this year - defeating three-time major winner Stanislas Wawrinka in the first round of the latter for his inaugural Grand Slam victory - while also reaching his first top-level quarter-final in Atlanta, losing to Arthur Rinderknech.

A three-time champion on the Challenger Tour - winning all of those titles on hard courts - the world number 103 can look forward to facing Marcos Giron or second seed Hubert Hurkacz in the second round if he can pull off the unthinkable over Draper, a man one year his junior.


Head To Head

Thursday's battle will represent the first-ever meeting between Draper and Bellucci on the ATP Tour, and interestingly, the showdown will pit two left-handed players against each other.

However, the 6ft 4in Draper boasts a huge physical advantage over the 5ft 9in Italian, and he has fashioned a 60% win rate from 50 top-level matches this year, while Bellucci has only taken part in 11 ATP Tour contests, winning five of them.


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We say: Draper to win in two sets

The unfancied Bellucci demonstrated in the qualifiers that he can be clinical on break points, although few can match up to Draper in that regard; the 22-year-old is second for break points converted over the past 365 days out of all top-level male players with 45.1%.

An extended break would have surely done Draper the world of good too, and the US Open semi-finalist should end his three-match losing streak in emphatic style to sail into round two.

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Jack Draper pictured at the US Open in September 2024
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