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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 36.96%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 36.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Grimsby Town |
36.96% ( 0.14) | 26.1% ( -0.03) | 36.93% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 53.89% ( 0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.39% ( 0.13) | 50.61% ( -0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.48% ( 0.12) | 72.52% ( -0.11) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.42% ( 0.15) | 26.58% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.2% ( 0.19) | 61.8% ( -0.19) |
Grimsby Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.4% ( 0) | 26.6% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.18% | 61.82% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Grimsby Town |
1-0 @ 9.37% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.21% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.63% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.74% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.29% Total : 36.96% | 1-1 @ 12.4% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.1% | 0-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 8.22% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.2% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.63% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.2% ( -0) 0-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.28% Total : 36.93% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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