Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 37.96% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.01%) and 3-2 (4.61%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-2 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.