League Two

League Two | 2nd Leg

May 19, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Vale Park

Port Vale
1 - 0
Swindon

(agg: -)

Wilson (8')
Wilson (42'), Pett (59')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Iandolo (56'), Conroy (95'), McKirdy (120+1')

Port Vale win 6-5 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's League Two clash between Port Vale and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Port Vale

Last Six:

Last Game: Mansfield 0-3 Port Vale
Saturday, May 28 at 4pm in League Two

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
4	Northampton Town	46	22	80
5	Port Vale	46	21	78
6	Swindon Town	46	23	77

Swindon Town

Last Six:

Last Game: Port Vale 1-0 Swindon (6-5 pen.)
Thursday, May 19 at 7.45pm in League Two

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
5	Port Vale	46	21	78
6	Swindon Town	46	23	77
7	Mansfield Town	46	15	77

We said: Port Vale 1-2 Swindon Town (Swindon to win 4-2 on aggregate)

Back on home territory, Port Vale will fancy their chances of turning things around to earn a spot in the final. However, we cannot ignore Swindon's recent winning streak, a run of results which should provide them with the confidence to move closer to promotion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 37.55%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 36.4% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Port Vale in this match.

Result
Port Vale	Draw	Swindon Town
37.55% ( 0.37)	26.05% ( -0.72)	36.4% ( 0.36)

Both teams to score 54.06% (

2.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.61% (

3.06)

50.39% (

-3.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.67% (

2.65)

72.32% (

-2.64)

Port Vale Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.85% (

1.65)

26.14% (

-1.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.78% (

2.16)

61.22% (

-2.16)

Swindon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.2% (

1.67)

26.8% (

-1.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.91% (

2.15)

62.09% (

-2.15)

Score Analysis

Port Vale 37.55%

Swindon Town 36.4%

Draw 26.04%

Port Vale	Draw	Swindon Town
1-0 @ 9.4% ( -0.73) 2-1 @ 8.3% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 6.31% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 3.71% ( 0.23) 3-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.45% ( 0.26) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.38% Total : 37.55%	1-1 @ 12.37% ( -0.35) 0-0 @ 7.01% ( -0.91) 2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.35) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.16) Other @ 0.13% Total : 26.04%	0-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.71) 1-2 @ 8.15% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 6.07% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.23) 0-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.26) 1-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.13) Other @ 3.13% Total : 36.4%