The hosts were dominant in the first leg and were rarely troubled, aside from the early goal they conceded. They will likely look to get an early goal themselves in this one, which will put them firmly in the driver's seat, and we can see them sitting back thereafter and seeing out the match by shutting out their opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 58.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Emelec had a probability of 18.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Emelec win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Defensa y Justicia in this match.

Result
Defensa y Justicia	Draw	Emelec
58.34% ( -1.4)	23.51% ( 0.61)	18.15% ( 0.79)

Both teams to score 47.13% (

-0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.74% (

-1.23)

52.26% (

1.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.04% (

-1.07)

73.96% (

1.07)

Defensa y Justicia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.34% (

-0.94)

17.66% (

0.94)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.72% (

-1.65)

48.28% (

1.65)

Emelec Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.24% (

0.23)

42.76% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.91% (

0.2)

79.09% (

-0.2)

Score Analysis

Defensa y Justicia 58.34%

Emelec 18.15%

Draw 23.5%

Defensa y Justicia	Draw	Emelec
1-0 @ 13.09% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 11.35% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.29) 3-1 @ 5.57% ( -0.21) 4-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.22) 4-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.17) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.48% Total : 58.34%	1-1 @ 11.12% ( 0.27) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.36) 2-2 @ 4.1% Other @ 0.74% Total : 23.5%	0-1 @ 6.42% ( 0.35) 1-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.78% Total : 18.15%