Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 45.29%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 31.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.14%) and 0-2 (6.3%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.