Australian A-League | Gameweek 16

May 14, 2021 at 10.05am UK

Campbelltown Stadium

Macarthur
3 - 1
Victory

Derbyshire (4', 89'), Meredith (39')
Derbyshire (65')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Kamsoba (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Macarthur and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.

Result
Macarthur	Draw	Melbourne Victory
46.74%	23.56%	29.69%

Both teams to score 60.43%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.87%

41.12%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.48%

63.52%

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.15%

17.84%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.4%

48.6%

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.56%

26.44%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.39%

61.61%

Score Analysis

Macarthur 46.74%

Melbourne Victory 29.69%

Draw 23.56%

Macarthur	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 9.32% 1-0 @ 8.13% 2-0 @ 7.01% 3-1 @ 5.36% 3-0 @ 4.03% 3-2 @ 3.56% 4-1 @ 2.31% 4-0 @ 1.73% 4-2 @ 1.54% Other @ 3.76% Total : 46.74%	1-1 @ 10.81% 2-2 @ 6.2% 0-0 @ 4.72% 3-3 @ 1.58% Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.56%	1-2 @ 7.2% 0-1 @ 6.28% 0-2 @ 4.18% 1-3 @ 3.19% 2-3 @ 2.75% 0-3 @ 1.85% 1-4 @ 1.06% 2-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.28% Total : 29.69%