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Macarthur
Australian A-League | Gameweek 16
May 14, 2021 at 10.05am UK
Campbelltown Stadium
Melbourne Victory

Macarthur
3 - 1
Victory

Derbyshire (4', 89'), Meredith (39')
Derbyshire (65')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Kamsoba (78')

Preview: Macarthur vs. Melbourne Victory - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Macarthur and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Macarthur play host to Melbourne Victory on Friday with the opportunity to strengthen their bid to end the regular A-League campaign in second position.

Meanwhile, Victory's sole aim for the remainder of the season is to finish above bottom-of-the-table side Newcastle Jets.


Match preview

Ante Milicic, now in charge of Macarthur FC, pictured in 2019© Reuters

Having failed to maintain their strong form from earlier in the season, supporters of Macarthur have recently been left somewhat disillusioned after losing ground on top spot.

However, the 2-1 win over Victory in their last fixture ended a run of five matches without success, putting the club on par with three other teams locked on 32 points.

While leaders Melbourne City have stormed clear of the chasing pack, Macarthur will now feel that they can finish as the best of the rest, particularly with another game against Victory to come next.

Ante Milicic's side had to come from behind to prevail on May 6, emerging victorious courtesy of goals from Markel Susaeta and James Meredith.

At a time when Susaeta is now second in the Macarthur scoring charts, leading marksman Matt Derbyshire has gone four games without finding the back of the net.

As far as Victory are concerned, interim manager Steve Kean is finding out why his group of players have spent the season at the bottom end of the table.

Despite their last three defeats all coming by a one-goal margin, Kean is not able to take the positives now that Perth Glory have moved seven points clear in 10th position.

With some difficult fixtures on the horizon, the former Blackburn Rovers boss will want to ensure that his side do not fall behind Newcastle Jets over the coming weeks.

Rudy Gestede netted Victory's consolation in the defeat to Glory, ending a run of six matches without a goal.

Macarthur Australian A-League form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W

Melbourne Victory Australian A-League form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L



Team News

Macarthur will have to make do without Derbyshire as the veteran forward picked up his fifth yellow card of the season last time out.

Moudi Najjar appears most likely to come into the starting lineup, while Liam Rose is an alternative to Lachlan Rose in midfield.

Nicholas Ansell will be missing for Victory after the defender was dismissed in the second half against Glory.

Aaron Anderson is in line to come back into the team, but that could prove to be the one change to the starting lineup.

Macarthur possible starting lineup:
Federici; McGing, Milligan, Susnjar; L.Rose, Benat, Martis, Meredith; Susaeta, Najjar, M'Mombwa

Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup:
Acton; Roux, Anderson, Ryan, Broxham; Brimmer, Butterfield; Kamsoba, Kruse, Folami; Gestede


SM words green background

We say: Macarthur 2-1 Melbourne Victory

Having lost out to the same opponents eight days earlier, revenge will be fresh in the minds of Victory's players.

However, we expect the home side to complete the double, potentially replicating the scoreline from the reverse fixture.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Macarthur vs Victory

Macarthur
78.0%
Draw
12.0%
Melbourne Victory
10.0%
50
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