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Australian A-League | Gameweek 12

Mar 13, 2021 at 8.10am UK

Marvel Stadium

Victory
1 - 3
Adelaide United

Brimmer (28')
Brimmer (23'), Anderson (47'), Roux (54'), Broxham (68')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Mauk (35', 77'), Yengi (62')
Lopez (20')

Preview: Melbourne Victory vs. Adelaide United - prediction, team news, lineups

By Joshua Ojele | 11 March 2021

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

On the back of two straight defeats, Melbourne Victory take on Adelaide United at the Marvel Stadium on Saturday.

Carl Veart's men come into this one in fine form and will be aiming to move into second place with their fourth win on the bounce.

Match preview

Melbourne Victory players celebrate in December 2020 © Reuters

Melbourne Victory suffered a humiliating home defeat in the Melbourne Derby last Saturday.

In a lacklustre performance, the hosts shipped five goals in the second half as they were dealt a 6-0 humbling by local rivals Melbourne City.

That was a seventh defeat for the hosts, who are rooted at the bottom of the table with seven points from 10 matches.

Victory have struggled at both ends of the pitch this term, scoring 10 goals while conceding 23, which is the worst defensive record in the division.

Serious doubts are now being cast over Grant Brebner's future at the helm, and he will have to solve their defensive issues sooner rather than later if he is to turn his side's fortunes around.

Next up is an uphill task of facing Adelaide United, against whom they have picked up only three points in their last six meetings.

The visitors ended their run of three straight defeats with a hard-fought win over league leaders Central Coast Mariners on February 19.

Since then, they have picked up two wins from two, including a 2-1 victory over Newcastle Jets last Friday.

This resurgence has seen the Reds rise back into the playoff spots, and they could move up two places into second with a win on Saturday.

This is the second meeting between the sides this season, with Mohamed Toure scoring the only goal of the game to give Veart's men a 1-0 win in January's reverse fixture.

Melbourne Victory Australian A-League form:

Adelaide United Australian A-League form:

Team News

Melbourne Victory manager Grant Brebner pictured in December 2020 © Reuters

Melbourne Victory come into this fixture without a few key players as they battle with several injury concerns.

Winger Marco Rojas will miss between six to eight weeks of action with a fractured fibula which he suffered in the game against Wellington Phoenix.

Victory will be without the services of 20-year-old defender Dylan Ryan, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the clash against Wellington Phoenix.

Veteran defender Ryan Shotton is also ruled out indefinitely as he recovers from a groin problem.

Brebner will be happy to welcome back Adama Traore, who has been confirmed to feature on Saturday, having returned to full fitness from a hamstring injury.

Similarly, Adelaide have a few injury concerns of their own and will be without the services of midfielder Ryan Kurto through a knee injury.

Nathan Konstandopoulos is also sidelined indefinitely after rupturing his left ACL in training back in February.

However, they will be boosted by the return of defenders Ryan Strain and Michael Jakobsen, who both featured in the win against Newcastle Jets last time out.

Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup:
Crocombe; Traore, Ansell, Anderson, Roux; Broxham, Butterfield; Kruse, Brimmer, McManaman; Folami

Adelaide United possible starting lineup:
Delianov; Smith, Jakobsen, Elsey, Strain; Joe Caletti, D'Arrigo; Dukuly, Mauk, Halloran; Juric

SM words green background

We say: Melbourne Victory 0-2 Adelaide United

Melbourne Victory have had a horrid campaign so far, losing five of their last six matches and conceding 10 goals in their last two. They take on a rejuvenated Adelaide United who have found their rhythm in recent weeks, and we predict the visitors keep up their good run by grabbing all three points unscathed.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 40.98%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.13%) and 0-2 (5.81%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.