Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 55.08%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 23.01% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.4%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (5.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.