Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 50.87%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 26.41% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.