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Serie A | Gameweek 30
Mar 30, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Milan logo

Fiorentina
1 - 2
AC Milan

Duncan (50')
Biraghi (13'), Martinez (24')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Loftus-Cheek (47'), Leao (53')
Thiaw (21'), Tomori (89'), Loftus-Cheek (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Fiorentina 1-1 M. Haifa
Thursday, March 14 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

We said: Fiorentina 2-2 AC Milan

Only one of the last 12 league matches between Fiorentina and Milan have ended in a draw, but that could be the outcome this weekend. The Viola will come up just shy of recording three straight home wins over the Rossoneri for a first time since the 1970s, but even one point would be welcome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.47%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 30.55% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
FiorentinaDrawAC Milan
45.47% (0.0089999999999932 0.01) 23.98% (0.0019999999999989 0) 30.55% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 59.49% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.41% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)42.59% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)64.99% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.06%18.94% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.55%50.45% (0.0020000000000024 0)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.39% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)26.61% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.16% (-0.012 -0.01)61.84% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 45.47%
    AC Milan 30.55%
    Draw 23.98%
FiorentinaDrawAC Milan
2-1 @ 9.24% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 8.39% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 6.98% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-1 @ 5.12% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-0 @ 3.87% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 3.39%
4-1 @ 2.13% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 1.61%
4-2 @ 1.41%
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 45.47%
1-1 @ 11.1%
2-2 @ 6.11% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 5.04% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.5%
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.98%
1-2 @ 7.35% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-1 @ 6.67% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.42% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 3.24% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 2.7% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.95% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
1-4 @ 1.07% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 30.55%

How you voted: Fiorentina vs AC Milan

Fiorentina
22.1%
Draw
18.2%
AC Milan
59.7%
154
Head to Head
Nov 25, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
Hernandez (45+2' pen.)
Tomori (56'), Pioli (77')

Arthur (12'), Parisi (45+1')
Mar 4, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 25
Fiorentina
2-1
AC Milan
Gonzalez (49' pen.), Jovic (87')
Hernandez (90+5')
Nov 13, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 15
AC Milan
2-1
Fiorentina
Leao (2'), Milenkovic (90+2' og.)
Barak (28')
May 1, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 35
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
Leao (82')
Bennacer (88')

Maleh (2'), Venuti (42'), Martinez (72')
Nov 20, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Fiorentina
4-3
AC Milan
Duncan (15'), Saponara (45+1'), Vlahovic (60', 85')
Castrovilli (90+5')
Ibrahimovic (62', 67'), Venuti (90+6' og.)
Hernandez (90+5')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli17122326121438
2Atalanta BCAtalanta16121339172237
3Inter Milan15104140152534
4Fiorentina1594228111731
5Lazio1610153023731
6Juventus16610026121428
7Bologna167722318528
8AC Milan167542516926
9Udinese166281925-620
10Empoli164751416-219
11Torino175481722-519
12Roma164481823-516
13Genoa173771426-1216
14Lecce164481027-1716
15Parma163672328-515
16Como163671828-1015
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1750122140-1915
18CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
19Monza161781421-710
20VeneziaVenezia1624101529-1410


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