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Serie A
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Serie A | Gameweek 24
Feb 11, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
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AC Milan
1 - 0
Napoli

Hernandez (25')
Hernandez (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Jesus (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Frosinone 2-3 AC Milan
Saturday, February 3 at 5pm in Serie A

Napoli

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Napoli 2-1 Hellas Verona
Sunday, February 4 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 1-0 Napoli

 Though the teams are equal across their last 10 league meetings, with three wins apiece and four draws, Milan have held the upper hand over the past year and can expect to punish Napoli again. The reigning champions are still lacking cohesion, while their predecessors have recently clicked into gear. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AC Milan in this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawNapoli
40.62% (-0.187 -0.19) 25.42% (0.070999999999998 0.07) 33.96% (0.114 0.11)
Both teams to score 55.84% (-0.223 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.04% (-0.3 -0.3)47.95% (0.299 0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.87% (-0.275 -0.27)70.13% (0.27499999999999 0.27)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.59% (-0.22800000000001 -0.23)23.41% (0.227 0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.59% (-0.33 -0.33)57.4% (0.328 0.33)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.91% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)27.09% (0.073 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.53% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)62.47% (0.095000000000006 0.1)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 40.62%
    Napoli 33.96%
    Draw 25.42%
AC MilanDrawNapoli
1-0 @ 9.21% (0.053000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.73% (-0.026 -0.03)
2-0 @ 6.69% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.23% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.24% (-0.025 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.76% (-0.033 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.53% (-0.025 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.17% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 40.62%
1-1 @ 12.02% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 6.34% (0.077999999999999 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.7% (-0.029000000000001 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.2% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.42%
0-1 @ 8.28% (0.084999999999999 0.08)
1-2 @ 7.85% (0.012 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.41% (0.045 0.04)
1-3 @ 3.42% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 2.48% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.36% (0.015 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.12% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 33.96%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Napoli

AC Milan
76.4%
Draw
14.3%
Napoli
9.3%
161
Head to Head
Oct 29, 2023 7.45pm
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Napoli
2-2
AC Milan
Politano (50'), Raspadori (63')
Natan (53'), Di Lorenzo (65'), Zanoli (86')
Natan (89')
Giroud (22', 31')
Reijnders (55'), Romero (62'), Musah (78')
> Preview
Apr 18, 2023 8pm
Quarter-Finals 2nd Leg
Napoli
1-1
AC Milan
Osimhen (90+3')
Giroud (43')
> Match Report
Apr 12, 2023 8pm
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
AC Milan
1-0
Napoli
Bennacer (40')
> Match Report
Apr 2, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 28
Napoli
0-4
AC Milan
Leao (17', 59'), Diaz (25'), Saelemaekers (67')
> Preview
Sep 18, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 7
AC Milan
1-2
Napoli
Giroud (69')
Politano (55' pen.), Simeone (78')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli21162335142150
2Inter Milan20145151183347
3Atalanta BCAtalanta21134446242243
4Lazio2112363728939
5Juventus21813034171737
6Fiorentina2096533211233
7Bologna208933226633
8AC Milan208752921831
9Roma217683127427
10Udinese217592432-826
11Torino215882126-523
12Genoa215881830-1223
13Como215792634-822
14CagliariCagliari2156102334-1121
15Empoli214892028-820
16Parma214892636-1020
17Lecce2155111536-2120
18Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2161142447-2319
19VeneziaVenezia2136121934-1515
20Monza2127122031-1113
> Serie A Full Table


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