Serie A | Gameweek 17
Dec 21, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Genoa1 - 2Napoli
We said: Genoa 0-1 Napoli
Two teams that prioritise caution over free-flowing football could produce a close-fought contest at Marassi, where Genoa have yet to win a league game this season. That wait will go on, as Napoli can eventually break their hosts down and claim the three points that will take them top. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 52.68%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.64%) and 1-2 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for a Genoa win it was 1-0 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Genoa | Draw | Napoli |
21.4% ( -0.08) | 25.93% ( -0) | 52.68% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 45.23% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
