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Serie A
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Serie A | Gameweek 25
Mar 4, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Milan logo

Fiorentina
2 - 1
AC Milan

Gonzalez (49' pen.), Jovic (87')
Cabral (29'), Ikone (59'), Gonzalez (70'), Davis Nicolas (79+79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Hernandez (90+5')
Thiaw (11'), Messias (35'), Kalulu (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fiorentina

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Hellas Verona 0-3 Fiorentina
Monday, February 27 at 5.30pm in Serie A

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 2-0 Atalanta
Sunday, February 26 at 7.45pm in Serie A

We said: Fiorentina 1-2 AC Milan

 Fiorentina (387) and Milan (351) are among the top four Serie A sides in terms of shots attempted this season, so there could be plenty of goalmouth action on Saturday evening - even if the visitors have tightened up at the back. Both teams should score at the Franchi, but Milan can gain revenge for a 4-3 reverse on their most recent visit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 44%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 31.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
FiorentinaDrawAC Milan
44% (-1.345 -1.35) 24.89% (0.42 0.42) 31.11% (0.922 0.92)
Both teams to score 56.63% (-0.95 -0.95)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.53% (-1.46 -1.46)46.47% (1.458 1.46)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.25% (-1.387 -1.39)68.75% (1.384 1.38)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.84% (-1.195 -1.2)21.16% (1.193 1.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.97% (-1.891 -1.89)54.02% (1.889 1.89)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.83% (-0.11500000000001 -0.12)28.17% (0.113 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.14% (-0.144 -0.14)63.86% (0.142 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 44%
    AC Milan 31.11%
    Draw 24.88%
FiorentinaDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 9.26% (0.232 0.23)
2-1 @ 9.11% (-0.133 -0.13)
2-0 @ 7.19% (-0.082 -0.08)
3-1 @ 4.72% (-0.248 -0.25)
3-0 @ 3.72% (-0.184 -0.18)
3-2 @ 2.99% (-0.167 -0.17)
4-1 @ 1.83% (-0.169 -0.17)
4-0 @ 1.45% (-0.128 -0.13)
4-2 @ 1.16% (-0.11 -0.11)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 44%
1-1 @ 11.72% (0.25 0.25)
0-0 @ 5.96% (0.359 0.36)
2-2 @ 5.77% (-0.103 -0.1)
3-3 @ 1.26% (-0.075 -0.08)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.88%
0-1 @ 7.55% (0.432 0.43)
1-2 @ 7.43% (0.141 0.14)
0-2 @ 4.78% (0.26 0.26)
1-3 @ 3.14% (0.05 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.44% (-0.052 -0.05)
0-3 @ 2.02% (0.103 0.1)
1-4 @ 0.99% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 31.11%

How you voted: Fiorentina vs AC Milan

Fiorentina
17.4%
Draw
12.2%
AC Milan
70.4%
115
Head to Head
Nov 13, 2022 5pm
AC Milan
2-1
Fiorentina
Leao (2'), Milenkovic (90+2' og.)
Diaz (21')
Barak (28')
May 1, 2022 2pm
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
Leao (82')
Bennacer (88')

Maleh (2'), Venuti (42'), Martinez (72')
Nov 20, 2021 7.45pm
Fiorentina
4-3
AC Milan
Duncan (15'), Saponara (45+1'), Vlahovic (60', 85')
Castrovilli (90+5')
Ibrahimovic (62', 67'), Venuti (90+6' og.)
Hernandez (90+5')
Mar 21, 2021 5pm
Fiorentina
2-3
AC Milan
Pulgar (17'), Ribery (51')
Prandelli (65'), Kouame (89')
Ibrahimovic (9'), Diaz (57'), Calhanoglu (72')
Calhanoglu (41'), Dalot (47'), Meite (90+2')
Nov 29, 2020 2pm
AC Milan
2-0
Fiorentina
Romagnoli (17'), Kessie (28' pen.)
Rebic (45+2'), Kessie (71')

Pezzella (25'), Castrovilli (52'), Biraghi (86'), Amrabat (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli21162335142150
2Inter Milan20145151183347
3Atalanta BCAtalanta21134446242243
4Lazio2112363728939
5Juventus21813034171737
6Fiorentina2096533211233
7Bologna208933226633
8AC Milan208752921831
9Roma217683127427
10Udinese217592432-826
11Torino215882126-523
12Genoa215881830-1223
13Como215792634-822
14CagliariCagliari2156102334-1121
15Empoli214892028-820
16Parma214892636-1020
17Lecce2155111536-2120
18Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2161142447-2319
19VeneziaVenezia2136121934-1515
20Monza2127122031-1113
> Serie A Full Table


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