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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 29.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-2 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
Result | ||
Chesterfield | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
46.6% ( -0.01) | 24.27% ( -0) | 29.13% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 57.6% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.3% ( 0.03) | 44.7% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.94% ( 0.03) | 67.06% ( -0.02) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.69% ( 0.01) | 19.31% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.93% ( 0.01) | 51.07% ( -0.01) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.38% ( 0.02) | 28.62% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.57% ( 0.03) | 64.43% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Chesterfield | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
2-1 @ 9.35% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.09% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.47% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.13% 3-0 @ 4.1% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.21% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.11% 4-0 @ 1.68% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0) Other @ 3.15% Total : 46.6% | 1-1 @ 11.37% 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.53% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.27% | 1-2 @ 7.11% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.91% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.33% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.97% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.44% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.8% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.64% Total : 29.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
2 | Port Vale | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 37 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 36 |
4 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 35 |
5 | Chesterfield | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 34 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Notts County | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 31 |
9 | MK Dons | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 30 |
10 | Gillingham | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 30 |
11 | Salford City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 30 |
12 | Bradford CityBradford | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 28 |
13 | Bromley | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 27 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 27 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 26 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
18 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 21 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 19 |
22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 19 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 15 |
24 | Morecambe | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 14 |
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